A tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea continues to bring showers and storms to parts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands and adjacent waters of the western Caribbean.

There appears to be a bit more low level circulation, but most of the rain is still on the eastern side of this system.

The conditions over the next few days will be conducive for development of this system. Upper level winds will be light and there is plenty of warm water ahead in this system's path.

This tropical wave will continue to move west-northwestward around 10 mph for the next couple of days.

It could become a tropical storm by Friday or Saturday.

Models then take this system into the Gulf of Mexico by going across the Yucatan Peninsula or through the Yucatan Channel.

The high pressure system that has been sending us the easterly winds will also help to protect us from this system, keeping it west of the Florida.

There is about a 40% chance of this system becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Further development is expected in the coming days.

The exact path through the Gulf of Mexico is still the big question on many people's minds. It all depends on the strength of the high pressure system.

If that high stays strong, the storm could continue more westward toward the Bay of Campeche.

If the high is a little weaker the storm could go toward the northern Gulf coast. Anywhere in between those locations is a possibility.