Official inflation in Cuba surpassed 2% last April, largely driven by the rising costs of food, according to Cuban economist Pedro Monreal. In a thread on X, Monreal explained, "Despite the moderation of official monthly inflation in Cuba for April, it still exceeded 2%, a level breached in 12 of the last 16 months."
While the most significant monthly price increases were observed in "alcoholic beverages and tobacco" and "transportation," which are linked to government economic decisions, the most substantial impact on overall inflation was concentrated in food (commerce and gastronomy). Monreal pointed out that during the first four months of the year, the rising price of pork had the largest impact on the "food and non-alcoholic beverages" division, highlighting the failure of the agricultural policy, which is making a crucial source of national protein more expensive.
In summary, food prices accounted for nearly three-quarters of the price increases in April, Monreal detailed. According to Monreal, without an increase in the supply of food, it is difficult to assume that inflation in Cuba would substantially decrease. Interannually, inflation has entered a "plateau" between 31% and 34% growth since November 2023.
These figures challenge the official narrative that "progress" is being made in achieving macroeconomic stability. The regime's data indicate the failure of the anti-inflationary component of the 2024 economic package, resulting in a sustained loss of purchasing power. Currently, the minimum wage in Cuba, set at 2,100 CUP since the Tarea de Ordenamiento, is barely enough to buy two kilos of chicken, reflecting a severe purchasing power crisis for workers amid inflated prices of food and basic goods.
Understanding Cuba's Inflation and Food Prices
The following questions and answers provide more insight into the inflation and food price crisis currently affecting Cuba:
What caused the significant increase in food prices in Cuba?
The significant increase in food prices in Cuba is largely due to the failure of agricultural policies, which have led to higher costs for essential proteins like pork. Government economic decisions also contributed to the overall inflationary trend.
How has inflation affected the purchasing power of Cuban workers?
Inflation has severely impacted the purchasing power of Cuban workers. The minimum wage of 2,100 CUP can barely cover the cost of two kilos of chicken, illustrating the significant discrepancy between wages and the cost of basic goods.
What are the implications of the current inflation trend for Cuba's economic stability?
The current inflation trend undermines the government's claims of progress towards macroeconomic stability. The persistent high inflation rates indicate the failure of the anti-inflationary measures in the 2024 economic package, leading to a continued loss of purchasing power for the Cuban populace.