Emilio Morales, a prominent Cuban economist currently visiting Madrid, asserted in an interview with CiberCuba on Monday that it is "impossible" for the Cuban peso to have strengthened against the dollar on its own as it has in recent days. He attributes the buying and selling of foreign currency below black market rates to the cyber operatives from the University of Information Sciences (UCI) on the island.
According to Morales, the only news that could truly revalue the peso is "the fall of the Government," as this could signal hope for a systemic change. "Until that happens, the peso will continue to rise," he emphasized.
Morales also dismissed claims that El Toque is responsible for the country's inflation by publishing the informal market currency exchange rates. "What drives inflation is the mismanagement of the economy and GAESA taking over the main bank in Cuba, which controls the nation's resources," he stated.
Challenges in Controlling Inflation
When asked if there could be any mechanism other than the intervention of cyber operatives to control inflation this week, Morales was unequivocal: "That's a lie. Cuba doesn't produce. Where is the productive backing for that to happen? It will likely return to its course and surpass the 400-peso barrier," he insisted.
Morales also ruled out the possibility that the peso's decline in value is due to an alleged injection of foreign currency into the informal market. "Where would they get the foreign currency if they have daily blackouts because they can't afford to buy oil? It would have to be a multi-million dollar injection, and they don't have it," he explained.
In his view, Cuba's uncontrolled exchange rate situation is a result of GAESA and the poor management by President Díaz-Canel. When Díaz-Canel took power six years ago, the peso had an exchange rate of 1 x 24 and now suffers from 1,500% inflation.
The economist criticized GAESA for abandoning the social pact that Fidel Castro had with the Cuban people in exchange for stripping them of rights and freedoms. Morales accuses the current government of "embezzling state finances" and breaking a social contract that no longer exists. "What exists now is that mafia," he stressed.
Morales specifically accuses these "mafiosos" of having stolen the country. He addresses this issue in his latest article in Cuba Siglo XXI, published this Sunday: "GAESA and Díaz-Canel, Main Culprits of Inflation in Cuba."
Morales also criticized Gladys María Bejarano Portela, the General Controller of the Republic, for speaking in "political terms" about Alejandro Gil, the former Cuban Minister of Economy, who is currently undergoing a judicial process for corruption. He was annoyed that she did not provide details about what really happened and referred to him as a "traitor." However, what Morales finds most alarming is her admission that she cannot audit GAESA.
Understanding Cuba's Inflation and Currency Issues
To better understand the complex economic situation in Cuba, here are some relevant questions and answers that shed light on the factors contributing to inflation and the peso's valuation.
Why is the Cuban peso deteriorating so rapidly?
The rapid deterioration of the Cuban peso is largely due to poor economic management by GAESA and President Díaz-Canel, coupled with a lack of productive capacity and resources.
Can the Cuban government control inflation without external intervention?
According to Emilio Morales, it is unlikely that the Cuban government can control inflation without external intervention due to the country's lack of productive backing and resources.
What role does GAESA play in Cuba's economic struggles?
GAESA plays a significant role in Cuba's economic struggles by mismanaging the country's resources and abandoning the social pact established by Fidel Castro, leading to severe inflation and economic instability.