The potential first cyclone of the 2024 season is emerging in the Gulf of Mexico as a disturbance bringing heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and gusty winds to the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
The system is slowly moving over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, maintaining a broad circulation with winds typical of a tropical storm but far from its central region.
According to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the center of the disturbance is located near 22.7 degrees north latitude and 93.8 degrees west longitude. It is currently moving west-northwest or 285 degrees at 7 knots (12.9 kilometers per hour). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb, with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (64.8 km/h) and gusts up to 45 knots (83.3 km/h).
The NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for the Texas coast, from El Paso de San Luis southward to the mouth of the Río Grande, as well as for the northeastern coast of Mexico, from the mouth of the Río Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
The system is forecasted to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with an increase in forward speed. It is expected to become a tropical storm later this afternoon or within the next few days, with an 80% probability.
"The potential first tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, with possible maximum totals of 15 inches. This rainfall will likely cause significant flash and urban flooding throughout the day, with new and renewed river rises. Landslides are also possible in higher terrain areas in northeastern Mexico," the NHC reported.
The NHC also noted, "The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shore. Water levels could reach heights of two to four feet."
Regarding the winds, tropical storm conditions and possible tornadoes are expected today and tonight in parts of deep southern Texas and southeastern Texas.
In a notice posted on its website, the NHC warned that this is a "large system with impacts extending far from the center in the form of rainfall, coastal flooding, and tropical storm conditions in parts of Texas and Mexico." If it evolves into a cyclone, the disturbance will be named Alberto.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2024, with concerning forecasts indicating it could be the most active in the last 30 years.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States reminded that the hurricane season will run from June 1 to November 30.
Although NOAA reported that "the tropics will remain relatively quiet for at least the next 7 days," in its annual pre-season report at the end of May, NOAA warned that this season is expected to be the most active in the past three decades, with between 17 and 25 storms with winds exceeding 62 kilometers per hour.
Understanding the 2024 Cyclone Season
Given the emergence of the potential first cyclone of the season, many questions arise about the 2024 cyclone season. Below are some frequently asked questions and their answers to help you stay informed.
What is the current status of the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico?
The disturbance is currently moving west-northwest at 7 knots, with a minimum central pressure of 998 mb and maximum sustained winds of 35 knots.
What areas are under a tropical storm warning?
A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Texas coast from El Paso de San Luis to the mouth of the Río Grande and for the northeastern coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Río Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
When is the disturbance expected to become a tropical storm?
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this afternoon or within the next few days, with an 80% probability.
What are the potential impacts of the cyclone?
The cyclone is expected to produce heavy rainfall, significant flash and urban flooding, dangerous storm surges, and possible landslides in higher terrain areas in northeastern Mexico.