The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States issued a warning on Tuesday regarding a tropical wave that is generating rain and thunderstorms in the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
From its social media account on X, the NHC forecasts that the system has a low probability of developing over the western Caribbean in the coming days or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development once it reaches the western Caribbean by the end of this week. The probability of formation within 48 hours is very low, near zero percent, but it increases slightly if the forecast range extends to seven days, according to their website.
A few days ago, a similar atmospheric phenomenon struck Cuba, bringing heavy showers, rain, and thunderstorms, particularly in the western and central regions of the country, where several areas experienced flooding.
Although it has since dissipated, the current cyclone season saw its first tropical storm: Alberto, which formed in the western Gulf of Mexico, causing rain, coastal flooding, and gusty winds.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a more active than usual season in the Atlantic, with the potential for up to 13 hurricanes, of which up to seven could be major hurricanes. According to the annual forecast released by the agency every May, between June 1 and November 30, there will be between 17 and 25 storms with winds exceeding 62 kilometers per hour.
Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator, highlighted in a press conference that this forecast is the highest the agency has ever issued in its regular May report, as a typical season sees about seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes with sustained winds of 178 km/h or more.
The expected high activity in the Atlantic basin is attributed to a combination of favorable storm formation factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific.
Tropical Wave and Hurricane Season FAQs
Here are some frequently asked questions regarding the tropical wave and the 2023 hurricane season as forecasted by the NHC and NOAA.
What is the current status of the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea?
The tropical wave is currently producing rain and thunderstorms in the southeastern Caribbean Sea with a low probability of development over the next 48 hours, though chances increase slightly over a seven-day period.
How many hurricanes are expected this season according to NOAA?
NOAA has forecasted up to 13 hurricanes, with up to seven potentially being major hurricanes, during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
What factors are contributing to the increased hurricane activity?
The increased hurricane activity is attributed to near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific.