The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami has announced that a tropical wave located approximately 1,400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has a 100% chance of developing into a hurricane in the coming days. This low-pressure system, designated as AL95, is showing increased organization of associated rain and thunderstorms and could transform into Tropical Depression Beryl as early as this Friday, according to the NHC's statement.
The NHC has indicated that the system is moving westward at a speed of 15 to 20 mph and is expected to reach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend. The entity asserts that, due to this trajectory, hurricane or tropical storm warnings are likely to be issued for parts of the region tonight or early Saturday.
Possible Impact on the Caribbean and Beyond
According to international forecast models, the cyclone is expected to reach the southern group of the Lesser Antilles on Monday as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane. It will then move into the eastern Caribbean Sea, heading west-northwest towards Jamaica and potentially near the southern coast of eastern Cuba. The Cuban regime reported on Facebook that the forecast up to the southern group of the Lesser Antilles is highly reliable, but there is significant uncertainty regarding its path once it enters the eastern Caribbean. Some models suggest a trajectory directly towards Cuba, while others indicate it might advance towards the Yucatán Peninsula and Central America.
The hurricane will be named Beryl. Additionally, another low-pressure area, designated as AL94, over the western Caribbean Sea is producing significant rainfall and thunderstorms. While no significant development of this disturbance is expected today, it may develop as it moves over the Yucatán Peninsula and emerges into the Bay of Campeche by late Saturday or early Sunday. This system is also expected to bring heavy rains to parts of Central America and Mexico over the weekend. The probabilities of formation for this system in the next 48 hours and the next seven days are 30%.
A third system, a tropical wave situated several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although the development of this system is slow, there is a chance it could become more organized next week as it moves west across the central and western tropical Atlantic. The probability of formation in the next seven days is 30%.
Both American and Cuban meteorologists predict that the current hurricane season will be the most active in the last 40 years.
FAQs About the Upcoming Hurricane Season
Given the high activity predicted for this hurricane season, here are some frequently asked questions and answers to help you stay informed and prepared.
What is the likelihood of the tropical wave developing into a hurricane?
The National Hurricane Center has indicated a 100% chance of the tropical wave developing into a hurricane in the coming days.
When is the expected impact on the Windward Islands?
The system is expected to reach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend.
What category could the cyclone reach?
According to forecast models, the cyclone could become a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.
What are the uncertainties regarding the hurricane's path?
There is significant uncertainty about its path once it enters the eastern Caribbean. Some models suggest it may head directly towards Cuba, while others indicate it might move towards the Yucatán Peninsula and Central America.