Meteorologists from Colorado State University (CSU) in the United States have revised their initial hurricane forecast for the current Atlantic cyclone season. On Tuesday, they anticipated 25 named storms and 12 hurricanes, six of which are expected to be major.
Just a day after Hurricane Beryl struck the state of Texas as a Category 1 storm early Monday morning, leaving destruction and death in its wake, the university's Department of Atmospheric Science added two named storms and one major hurricane to their initial June predictions.
"We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to predict an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic for 2024," the CSU warned.
"We anticipate a much higher-than-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States and in the Caribbean," the experts stated. This pioneering group in seasonal hurricane prediction updated their forecast based on the rise in average sea surface temperatures in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, which "remain near record warm levels."
These temperatures "provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification," the university noted on its website.
CSU experts emphasized that "Beryl, a deep Category 5 tropical hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season."
Beryl set records by becoming the first hurricane, both in Category 4 and 5 of the Saffir-Simpson scale, to form so early in the 2024 cyclone season, which began on June 1 and ends on November 30.
Colorado State University is not the first organization to forecast an above-average hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States predicted in May a more active than usual season, expecting between 17 and 25 named storms and up to 13 hurricanes, of which as many as seven could be major.
Understanding the 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast
Given the increased hurricane forecast for 2024, many readers may have questions about the potential impact and the reasons behind this prediction. Below are some frequently asked questions and their answers.
Why did CSU increase its hurricane forecast for 2024?
CSU increased its forecast due to rising sea surface temperatures in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, which are near record warm levels. These conditions are more conducive to hurricane formation and intensification.
What are the expected numbers for the 2024 hurricane season?
For the 2024 hurricane season, CSU forecasts 25 named storms and 12 hurricanes, six of which are expected to be major.
How does Hurricane Beryl impact the forecast?
Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 storm, is seen as an indicator of a hyperactive season. Its early formation and intensity have influenced the increased forecast.
What other organizations have predicted an active hurricane season?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also predicted a more active than usual hurricane season, expecting between 17 and 25 named storms and up to 13 hurricanes.