The demographic outlook for Cuba is far from promising leading up to 2100, according to a study released by the United Nations (UN). The UN's 28th edition of the World Population Prospects provides population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, supported by analyses of historical demographic trends.
The analysis includes data from 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023, as well as information from civil registration systems and 3,189 nationally representative sample surveys. The 2024 revision also offers population projections up to the year 2100, reflecting a range of plausible outcomes at global, regional, and national levels.
Specifically for Cuba, the forecasts indicate a significant population decline of more than six million inhabitants on the island. A graph presented by the UN shows that compared to 2022, the projected population for Cuba in 2100 will fall below six million. In 2022, the population was just under seven million.
This warning is not new to Cubans. In 2016, a study conducted by Foresight Cuba (based on the homonymous research methodology) with support from the UN, ONEI, CEDEM, Barros, and CEPAL, illustrated the evolution of birth rates, death rates, and net migration in the Caribbean island and how these factors affect population growth.
According to the report, following a demographic boom in the 1960s, birth rates have been declining since a peak in 1965. Mortality has been increasing since 1960, and net migration highlights crises following periods of restrictions on leaving the country.
Today, Cuba is the most aged country in Latin America and will be one of the 10 most aged countries in the world by 2050. Projections of birth rates do not foresee an increase above the replacement level. The group of people aged 60 and over already surpasses those aged 14 and under, and the number of deaths will exceed births in the next three years. Cuba is expected to lose up to 2.2 million inhabitants by 2050.
According to an independent demographic study, soon to be published and accessed by Efe news agency, the Cuban population plummeted by 18% between 2022 and 2023, reaching 8.62 million people. The study, conducted by Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, aims to quantify the consequences of the significant exodus the country has been experiencing since 2021 and to address the lack of official statistics on demographic changes.
The calculation is based on figures of Cubans arriving in the United States between October 2021 and April 2024, totaling 738,680 people, according to official information released by U.S. authorities, combining visas, paroles, and irregular arrivals.
Cuba has not conducted a population census in twelve years, and the Cuban Government postponed the 2022 census to 2025, citing economic constraints as the reason for the delay.
Understanding Cuba's Population Decline
This section addresses common questions regarding the projected population decline in Cuba as highlighted by recent UN studies and independent research.
Why is Cuba's population expected to decline so drastically by 2100?
The decline is attributed to decreasing birth rates, increasing mortality rates, and a significant net migration loss as many Cubans emigrate to other countries.
What factors have contributed to the aging population in Cuba?
The aging population is a result of lower birth rates and higher life expectancy, coupled with the emigration of younger individuals, which skews the age distribution towards older age groups.
How has the Cuban government's delay in conducting a population census impacted demographic data?
The delay has resulted in a lack of up-to-date official statistics, making it challenging to accurately assess and address demographic changes and trends.