The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has raised the probability of a tropical wave currently located in the central tropical Atlantic developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days to 40%. This wave, which is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is moving westward at a speed of 10 to 15 mph (16 to 24 km/h), approaching the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC's provisional track shows the tropical wave heading towards Cuba. Early next week, the system is expected to undergo gradual development. After nearing the Lesser Antilles, the system is forecasted to continue west-northwest, entering parts of the eastern Caribbean Sea by mid-next week.
The NHC advises close monitoring of the system's development and evolution, particularly by territories in the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean regions. The most active period of the current hurricane season began on August 20 and will extend for approximately six weeks.
This year's Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has been deemed very active. Experts consider it the most active season in the past three decades due to favorable conditions for storm development, such as warmer sea temperatures and reduced vertical wind shear.
In an average season, 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) typically develop. However, the 2024 season may surpass these figures. Just two weeks ago, as the peak of the season approached, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States adjusted its forecast.
The new report from NOAA shows a slight but significant adjustment, now estimating a range of 17 to 24 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) and 8 to 13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).
FAQs about the Increased Cyclone Activity in the Atlantic
Given the heightened activity in the Atlantic this hurricane season, here are some frequently asked questions and their answers to help you stay informed and prepared.
What factors are contributing to the increased hurricane activity this season?
Warmer sea temperatures and reduced vertical wind shear are the primary factors contributing to the increased hurricane activity this season.
How many storms and hurricanes are expected this season?
NOAA's latest forecast estimates between 17 to 24 named storms and 8 to 13 hurricanes.
What regions should monitor the development of the tropical wave?
Territories in the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean regions should closely monitor the development and evolution of the tropical wave.