A new poll ahead of the upcoming United States presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, shows a tie between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The survey, released on Wednesday, was conducted by the firm Inquire at the behest of Republican Commissioner Kevin Cabrera, as reported by EFE.
The results indicate that both candidates have 47% of the vote intention in Florida's most populous county, traditionally a Democratic stronghold. The survey sample consisted of 500 people, polled between August 22 and 25, close to the end of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and has a margin of error of 4.5%. Additionally, the study notes that 6% of respondents remain undecided.
Although not conclusive, the poll could signal concerns for the Democrats, who have not lost this county since 1988. However, in 2022, current Florida Governor, Republican Ron DeSantis, won this county in his re-election campaign. "Miami-Dade, once a Democratic bastion, is no longer a guaranteed win," Cabrera told the Miami Herald, further asserting that the "community embraces conservative values and rejects the failed policies of Biden-Harris that are ruining our nation."
Harris is viewed more favorably (49%) than unfavorably (45%) in the county, while Trump is not far behind with 48% favorable and 46% unfavorable ratings. These findings contrast with another poll released earlier this month by Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert, which showed a 14-point lead for Harris (54% to 40%) in Miami-Dade. That survey, conducted by MDW Communications, a well-known Democratic consultant based in Plantation, Florida, highlighted significant shifts in the local political landscape following Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, according to the Miami Herald.
As Harris officially accepted the Democratic Party's presidential nomination during the national convention held at the United Center in Chicago a week ago, the polls do not indicate a clear winner for November 5. However, the website FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates national polls, currently shows Harris leading Trump by 3.4 percentage points.
The state of Florida has solidified its status as a conservative stronghold, with one million more registered Republican voters than Democrats. According to data from state election supervisors, there are currently 5.3 million active voters affiliated with the Republican Party compared to 4.3 million registered as Democrats. Additionally, around 3.9 million voters do not identify with any political party or are affiliated with minor parties. In 2020, Democrats still had a lead of approximately 97,000 registered voters over Republicans.
Key Insights from the Miami-Dade Poll
To provide a deeper understanding of the recent poll results in Miami-Dade County, here are some frequently asked questions and their answers:
What is the significance of Miami-Dade County in presidential elections?
Miami-Dade is Florida's most populous county and has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold. Its voting patterns can significantly influence the overall results in the state.
Who conducted the recent poll showing the tie between Harris and Trump?
The poll was conducted by the firm Inquire at the request of Republican Commissioner Kevin Cabrera.
How does the margin of error affect the poll results?
The margin of error is 4.5%, which means the actual support for each candidate could be slightly higher or lower than reported, impacting the interpretation of a tie or lead.