The situation within Cuba's National Electric System (SEN) remained critical over the past 24 hours due to a severe shortfall in generation capacity, according to the National Electric Union (UNE). The deficit has led to widespread power outages across the nation, and the issue remains unresolved.
At the peak demand period, the maximum outage reached 1514 MW, recorded at 8:20 PM yesterday. This morning, the SEN reported an availability of 2130 MW against a demand of 2650 MW, resulting in a 520 MW deficit during peak hours, exacerbating the situation with possible impacts reaching 1000 MW.
Causes of the Shortfall
The UNE reported that several generating units are offline due to various failures, including:
- Unit 4 of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Thermal Power Plant (CTE)
- Units 5 and 6 of the Nuevitas CTE
- Unit 2 of the Felton CTE
- Unit 5 of the Rente CTE
In total, thermal generation limitations account for 437 MW. Additionally, 46 distributed generation plants are out of service due to a lack of fuel, affecting an extra 312 MW.
Efforts to Mitigate the Deficit
For peak hours, the UNE expects the reintegration of Unit 5 of the Diez de Octubre CTE with 70 MW, along with the recovery of an additional 100 MW from distributed generation engines currently inoperative due to fuel shortages.
Projections for the Day
The UNE estimates that by peak hours today, energy availability will reach 2300 MW against a projected maximum demand of 3300 MW, resulting in an estimated deficit of 1000 MW. Under current conditions, an impact of up to 1070 MW is forecasted during peak demand periods.
This prolonged generation shortfall has left much of the country without power, with the aggravating factor that solutions seem distant given the ongoing breakdowns and fuel shortages hindering the ability to meet demand.
Over the past month, blackouts have escalated:
- On September 1, 2024, the UNE anticipated blackouts due to a 310 MW deficit caused by fuel shortages and breakdowns in several plants across different regions.
- On September 3, the situation worsened with outages exceeding 600 MW due to failures in six thermal units nationwide.
- By September 7, three more units suffered damage, causing a 725 MW deficit during peak hours.
- On September 9, the forecast worsened with an 820 MW deficit for peak demand. On September 11, several areas in Havana reported a maximum impact of 698 MW due to local breakdowns, while on September 12, a national impact exceeding 700 MW was estimated.
- On September 15, blackouts close to 900 MW were forecasted due to increasing demand.
- By September 16, the deficit rose to 1,000 MW during peak hours, and on September 18, more than 1,300 MW were offline, affecting much of the country.
- Finally, on September 19, the deficit reached 1,514 MW, causing blackouts lasting up to 24 hours.
The energy crisis in Cuba has significantly worsened throughout September 2024, with power generation deficits severely impacting daily life. The lack of maintenance in infrastructure, constant breakdowns in thermal units, and fuel shortages have created a scenario of prolonged and recurring blackouts. Despite the government's attempts to alleviate the situation with temporary measures, the deficit of up to 1,514 MW reflects a structural crisis that will require long-term solutions, beyond the capabilities of the current Cuban regime, to stabilize the country's electric system.