This week, there is a significant chance for the formation of a tropical depression near Cuba, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At 8:00 AM this Sunday, the center released a report warning about the potential development of a tropical depression south of Cuba, in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Favorable Conditions for System Development
"Environmental conditions appear conducive for the gradual development of this system over the next few days," the NHC report states. Currently, there are disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America, associated with a very broad area of low pressure.
Movement and Development Probability
"A tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week," the report adds. Although the probability of development is only 10% over the next 48 hours, it increases to 70% over the next seven days as it moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico.
Impact on Central America and Cuba
Regardless of its development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall in parts of Central America over the coming days. In Cuba, close attention is being paid to the phenomenon, which could gradually strengthen as it moves, supported by warm sea temperatures and reduced vertical wind shear in the region.
Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisanchez has alerted on social media about the potential formation of this system in the western Caribbean, urging the population to stay informed about its progress. "Nothing has formed yet, but we will be monitoring closely to see if it materializes," he noted.