In a recent poll, Donald Trump is shown to have a six-point lead over Kamala Harris in Florida, just over three weeks before the November 5 elections. Conducted by Mason-Dixon on behalf of Telemundo 51 and NBC6, the survey provides insights into the preferences of Florida voters regarding the presidential race, the Senate battle, and key constitutional amendments up for vote.
The poll, which surveyed 625 registered voters, reveals that the Republican ticket of Trump and J.D. Vance holds 49% of the support compared to 43% for the Democratic duo of Harris and Tim Walz. Meanwhile, 6% of respondents remain undecided. Harris leads among female voters with a 49-44% margin, while Trump dominates among male voters at 55-37%.
Demographics and Regional Differences
Trump shows a significant lead among white voters (56-37) and Hispanics (47-42), whereas Harris garners most support from African American voters (78-12). Regionally, 60% of respondents in southwest Florida favor Trump with 35% backing Harris. In contrast, the southeast sees Harris leading with 53% against Trump's 36%. In central Florida, Trump holds a 53-42% advantage, while in the Tampa Bay area, he leads Harris 48-42%. In northern Florida, Trump's lead widens to 59-32%.
Age Group Preferences
The poll highlights that 47% of likely voters aged 18 to 34 support Harris, slightly ahead of Trump's 46%. Among the 35 to 49 age group, Harris leads with 45% compared to Trump's 44%. However, Trump has a strong following among voters aged 50 to 64, with a 52-38% lead, and among those aged 65 and over, where he leads 53-43%.
Senate Race and Key Amendments
In the Senate race, Republican incumbent Rick Scott is favored by 48% of voters, while Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trails with 41%. Mucarsel-Powell, of Ecuadorian descent, leads among women (48-41), whereas Scott is ahead among men (55-35). Scott also leads among white voters (55-35) and Hispanics (47-41), while African American voters favor Mucarsel-Powell (79-9).
The poll also addresses two constitutional amendments on the Florida ballot. It shows that a majority of likely voters support the "yes" stance on both Amendment 3, regarding marijuana legalization, and Amendment 4, concerning abortion rights, with 58% and 61% support, respectively. Each amendment requires a 60% majority for approval.
Conducted via telephone from October 1 to 4, the survey has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.