Cuba's electricity crisis appears to be worsening, with the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) predicting a severe spike in power outages for this Thursday. The energy turmoil on the island shows no signs of improvement, with a staggering forecast of 1,678 MW in outages expected on October 17th.
Yesterday, the island experienced continuous power disruptions due to insufficient generation capacity, which persisted throughout the day and into the early morning hours. The peak outage reached 1,589 MW at 7:20 p.m. In today's update, UNE admitted that the blackouts exceeded the planned 1,445 MW, attributing the failure to the absence of Unit 5 of the CTE Diez de Octubre and Unit 3 of the CTE Antonio Maceo, which were anticipated to resume service.
As of 7:00 a.m. on Thursday, the National Electric System's (SEN) available capacity stood at 1,600 MW, while the demand reached 2,600 MW, resulting in 1,072 MW of power shortages due to generation deficits. This shortfall is expected to lead to midday outages of approximately 1,400 MW, a record high for daytime consumption.
Current Challenges in Power Generation
Several units remain out of operation, including Unit 5 of the CTE Nuevitas, Unit 2 of the CTE Felton, Unit 4 of Energas Varadero, and Unit 3 of the CTE Renté. Additionally, Unit 2 of the CTE Santa Cruz, Unit 4 of the CTE Cienfuegos, and Unit 5 of the CTE Renté are undergoing maintenance. Consequently, the same seven thermoelectric units from the previous day remain offline. Thermal generation limitations currently account for a deficit of 441 MW.
Furthermore, fuel shortages have rendered 50 distributed generation plants non-operational, an increase of 13 from the previous day. This includes the Mariel barge, the CDE Mariel, the Regla barge, 11 engines of the Melones barge, and the Santiago de Cuba barge, totaling 799 MW in affected capacity. Of these, 325 MW are from distributed generation, 390 MW from barges, and 84 MW from the CDE Mariel.
Outlook for Peak Demand Hours
For the peak hours, UNE anticipates the activation of Unit 5 of the CTE Nuevitas, contributing 75 MW, and Unit 4 of Energas Varadero, adding 17 MW. Despite these efforts, the expected availability during peak demand will be 1,692 MW against a maximum demand of 3,300 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,608 MW. Should these conditions persist, UNE forecasts an unprecedented power outage of 1,678 MW during the evening, the period of highest demand.