In 2023, a staggering 4.2 million Cubans, accounting for 37.8% of the island's population, faced food insecurity, according to a report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Over the past seven years, Cuba’s agricultural output has plummeted dramatically, leading to increased reliance on imported food. This, coupled with reduced trade, declining tourism revenues, and fewer remittances from abroad, has resulted in nearly 40% of Cubans struggling to secure adequate nutrition, as indicated by a study conducted by the USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS).
Using the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model, USDA researchers estimated that in 2023, the average food gap in Cuba was approximately 225 calories per capita per day. The IFSA model defines this gap as the shortfall between projected food demand and a caloric threshold of 2,100 kilocalories per capita daily.
Alarming Caloric Deficiency
The study’s findings are concerning: 12.8% of Cubans, or 1.4 million individuals, did not meet the daily caloric requirement of 2,100 calories in 2023. Due to uncertainties surrounding official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, researchers considered an adjusted per capita GDP scenario (based on the Caribbean subregion's average) and concluded that 37.8% of the Cuban population suffered from food insecurity last year.
The report highlights the sharp decline in Cuba's national agricultural production since 2016, which has heightened its dependence on imports to fill food shortages, estimated at 41,000 metric tons in 2023. Grain production, particularly rice and corn, has been decreasing since 2016, with less than 400,000 metric tons produced annually between 2020 and 2023, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
Plummeting Agricultural Output
Between the 2016/17 and 2023/24 periods, Cuba's annual rice production fell from 335,000 to 140,000 metric tons, a 58% drop, while corn production decreased from 404,000 to 250,000 metric tons, marking a 38% decline. Additionally, Cuba's annual sugar exports, which were a significant source of foreign exchange in the 20th century, plunged from 1.1 million to 110,000 metric tons (gross value), a staggering 90.5% decrease.
In response to the collapse of national agricultural production, the Cuban government has turned to imports to try to address the food deficit. "The country’s main agricultural imports are staples like chicken, wheat, and rice, reflecting efforts to meet essential food needs that cannot be satisfied by domestic production," the report noted.
Economic Struggles Compounding the Crisis
Since the coronavirus pandemic, Cuba's economy has struggled to achieve a robust and sustained recovery, continuing to grapple with declining tourism revenues, reduced agricultural output, energy shortages, and double-digit inflation. According to the USDA, this ongoing economic downturn has restricted the nation's ability to import agricultural goods and revive domestic food production, exacerbating Cuba's food security issues.
"This level of food insecurity reflects the high domestic food prices, which diminish household purchasing power, particularly among lower-income families, where food accounts for a larger share of total expenditures," the study stated.
In this challenging context, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba have increased over the past three years, primarily driven by a single product: chicken. "After U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba fell to $157 million in 2020, this trade rebounded to $299 million in 2021, $319 million in 2022, and $337 million in 2023. Chicken accounted for 89.4% of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba" between 2020 and 2023, reported the USDA.
International Aid and Domestic Shortfalls
The European Union (EU), the United States, and Brazil were Cuba's first, second, and third largest agricultural import suppliers from 2017 to 2022, respectively, while Russia donated 25,000 metric tons of wheat to Cuba in 2023.
Recently, the Cuban regime acknowledged a significant decline in the production of protein sources, poultry, and pork, attributed to a lack of inputs, fuel shortages, and adverse weather conditions. Cuba's Minister of Agriculture, Ydael Pérez Brito, reported that the country has not exceeded 200,000 tons of food production.
The Cuban Observatory for Human Rights (OCDH) revealed in its VII Report on the State of Social Rights in Cuba 2024, released last July, that 89% of Cuban families live in extreme poverty. This figure represents a one percentage point increase from 2023 and a 13% rise from 2022.
In June, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) disclosed that 9% of children in Cuba suffer from severe food poverty, meaning they have access to only two of the eight essential foods needed for a healthy life.