The energy crisis in Cuba shows no signs of abating, with power outages expected to reach a staggering 1,318 MW today. This increase is partly due to the maintenance-related shutdown of the Felton Thermoelectric Plant, a critical component of the National Electric System (SEN). On Monday, the demand for electricity exceeded initial forecasts, peaking at 1,200 MW at 7:30 p.m., while the anticipated maximum impact was only 1,064 MW.
Yesterday evening, starting at 5:19 p.m. local time, electricity services began experiencing disruptions because supply could not meet the heightened demand. These interruptions persisted until 2:11 a.m. today when the supply was finally restored, as reported by the Electric Union (UNE). However, just three hours later, at 5:30 a.m., the service was disrupted once again.
As of 7:00 a.m. on October 29, the SEN's generation capacity was only 2,015 MW, while the demand had soared to 2,250 MW, leaving 271 MW uncovered. Official estimates suggest that during midday on October 29, the deficit in generation could reach 650 MW, particularly affecting the central and eastern regions due to high energy transfer demands in these areas.
Challenges Facing Power Plants
The nation's thermal power plants are grappling with significant issues. At present, Unit 3 of the Santa Cruz Thermoelectric Plant (CTE), Unit 3 of the CTE Cienfuegos, and Unit 2 of the CTE Felton are offline due to mechanical failures. Additionally, Unit 2 of the CTE Santa Cruz and Unit 5 of the CTE Renté are undergoing scheduled maintenance. The situation worsened as Unit 1 of the CTE Felton was taken offline this morning for an "urgent" maintenance task expected to last 10 days, further exacerbating the generation limitations.
Distributed Generation Under Pressure
The total limitations in thermal generation amount to 538 MW. The distributed generation sector is facing similar challenges, with 66 distributed generation plants, totaling 409 MW, out of service due to fuel shortages. The situation is compounded by the Santiago de Cuba barge, which contributes 89 MW, resulting in a loss of 498 MW from distributed generation.
Projected Peak Demand Scenario
As peak demand hours approach, an availability of 1,902 MW is anticipated against a projected maximum demand of 3,150 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,248 MW. If these conditions persist, power outages could reach up to 1,318 MW, significantly impacting the central-eastern regions of the country.
This ongoing shortfall in generation capacity, alongside prolonged maintenance in several units of the country's main thermoelectric plants, forecasts a Tuesday fraught with extended power outages nationwide. Lázaro Guerra Hernández, General Director of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM), provided detailed insights into the current state of electricity generation in the country during an interview with Cuban Television.