The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced on Thursday that a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the coming days. According to their latest update, the chance of formation is almost zero over the next 48 hours, but it rises to 50 percent within the next week.
The report highlights that gradual development is expected, with the possibility of a tropical depression forming by the weekend or early next week as the system moves north or northwest over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Previously, the NHC had warned about the potential formation of a tropical depression in the Caribbean near eastern Cuba. At that time, it indicated that the evolving low-pressure system did not pose a threat to Cuba.
However, alarms are sounding on the island due to the potential organization of the system, which could head toward a region recently devastated by Hurricane Oscar. Back in June, meteorologists from Colorado State University (CSU), renowned for their seasonal hurricane forecasts, released their outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. They predicted an "extremely active" season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).
These projections significantly exceed the 30-year average, which stands at 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes in the Atlantic, as noted in their comprehensive 44-page report.