The energy situation in Cuba remains dire. Despite the recent reintegration of two malfunctioning thermal units into the National Electric System (SEN), power outages on Monday are projected to reach 1,366 MW. According to the report from Unión Eléctrica (UNE) for November 4th, a total of seven thermal units are currently offline: three due to breakdowns and four undergoing maintenance.
Yesterday, the entire nation faced a 24-hour power interruption caused by a deficit in generation capacity. This problem persisted through the early hours of today, undermining the stability of the SEN. On Sunday, the peak power deficit hit 1,349 MW at 6:20 p.m. Additionally, 3 MW were impacted in Guantánamo province following Hurricane Oscar.
As of 7:00 a.m. today, the SEN's availability was 1,650 MW against a demand of 2,440 MW, leaving 804 MW short due to capacity limitations. By midday Monday, outages of around 1,050 MW are expected, primarily affecting the central-eastern region due to high power transfers to that area.
Current Thermal Unit Status
The report lists the following thermal units as out of service: unit 5 at CTE Mariel, unit 5 at CTE Nuevitas, and unit 2 at CTE Felton. In maintenance are unit 2 at CTE Santa Cruz, unit 3 at CTE Cienfuegos, unit 1 at CTE Felton, and unit 5 at CTE Renté. Thermal generation limitations are pegged at 445 MW.
Fuel Shortages Compounding the Problem
A staggering 70 distributed generation plants, with a combined capacity of 332 MW, are offline due to fuel shortages, including the 64 MW plant in Santiago de Cuba, totaling 396 MW out of operation. By peak hours today, eight engines from CDE Moa are expected to contribute 104 MW, and 100 MW are anticipated to be recovered from currently inactive distributed generation plants due to fuel scarcity.
If these forecasts hold, the total availability during peak times would be 1,854 MW, with an estimated maximum demand of 3,150 MW, resulting in a shortfall of 1,296 MW. Projections indicate that if conditions persist, the peak period could see disruptions reaching 1,366 MW, with the central-eastern zone bearing the brunt.