The Forecast Center of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) released its initial Tropical Cyclone Alert at 10 a.m. local time, warning of the development of Tropical Depression Eighteen in the Caribbean Sea. The alert urges Cuban residents to stay updated on the evolving weather situation. According to INSMET, "Today, rain showers and thunderstorms will persist in the eastern provinces, with potential for heavy and intense precipitation in some areas. These weather conditions are expected to spread from the afternoon into the evening across the central region and later to western Cuba."
The Institute highlighted that "the wind and sea effects in various parts of the country will depend on the path and strength this tropical cyclone attains." As of 10 a.m., the center of the Tropical Depression was located approximately 310 kilometers south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 515 kilometers south-southeast of Cabo Cruz, Granma. Currently, the system is moving north at a speed of 15 km/h, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and higher gusts. The central minimum pressure is recorded at 1003 hectoPascal.
Over the next 12 to 24 hours, the system is anticipated to maintain its movement speed while shifting its trajectory northwest near Jamaica. "As it progresses, it is expected to gain organization and intensity, with the potential to escalate into a tropical storm and possibly evolve into a hurricane near the Cayman Islands," INSMET cautioned.
The Path of Tropical Depression Eighteen
Earlier today, the area of low pressure in the central Caribbean had become more organized, and reconnaissance aircraft confirmed it had developed into Tropical Depression Eighteen south of Jamaica. "Given the current position and projected path of this system, it is crucial to monitor its development, assess potential impacts on the national territory, and heed updates from the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology," the statement concluded. The next tropical cyclone advisory regarding this system will be issued at 6 p.m. today, Monday.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) had previously released a bulletin indicating a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. Additionally, a Tropical Storm Watch has been established for the provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Ávila, Camagüey, and Las Tunas. These precautionary measures aim to anticipate potential hurricane and tropical storm conditions within the next 48 hours.
Anticipated Weather Impacts
The NHC forecasts significant impacts in Cuba, including hurricane conditions in the western regions and the Isle of Youth by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the central part of the island. Associated rains could be intense, with accumulations ranging from 75 to 150 mm and local maximums of up to 225 mm, potentially leading to flooding and landslides in vulnerable areas. Furthermore, there is a warning for storm surges that may raise water levels by 0.6 to 1.2 meters along the southern coast of Pinar del Río and the Isle of Youth. An increase in wave activity is also expected to impact much of the western Caribbean in the coming days.