Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera has sounded the alarm on the evolving tropical storm Rafael, urging attention over the next few hours. Although currently lacking significant cloud coverage, Rafael is expected to intensify as it approaches Cuba. In a recent YouTube update, the well-known meteorologist emphasized that "the forming bands are quite robust," noting that the storm is "rapidly structuring," a development likely to be further fueled by the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.
Potential Paths and Intensity
Regarding possible paths, Rubiera clarified that while the trajectories are closely grouped at present, they diverge as the storm nears Cuba due to an anticylonic ridge steering the system northwest. However, this path could still change. "The ridge may either retreat slightly or extend further into the Gulf of Mexico," Rubiera explained, highlighting that the potential paths cross primarily over Pinar del Río in Cuba.
On the topic of intensity, Rubiera anticipates Rafael could develop into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba. Factors contributing to this potential intensification include the high thermal content of the Caribbean waters, excess moisture in the lower atmosphere, and weak upper-level winds—all conditions that Rubiera believes could lead to "rapid intensification." Currently, the storm exhibits sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) at its center.
Tropical Storm Rafael's Current Position
As of 7:00 a.m. EST, Rafael was positioned 130 km south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and 370 km southeast of Grand Cayman. It was moving northwest at 20 km/h (13 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 993 mb (29.33 inches).
Warnings and Precautions
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and several Cuban provinces, including Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud. Additionally, a tropical storm warning covers Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, and Ciego de Ávila. Tropical storm alerts have been issued for Camagüey and Las Tunas provinces, Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, and Dry Tortugas.
The warnings suggest hurricane-strength winds could hit affected regions within 36 hours, prompting residents to prepare for the storm's arrival. Tropical storm conditions are expected in areas under warning, with the potential for these conditions in alert areas over the next 48 hours.
Forecast Path and Impact
Rafael is projected to pass near Jamaica in the morning, reach the Cayman Islands by nightfall, and approach western Cuba by Wednesday. Strengthening is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours, with the storm likely becoming a hurricane before hitting Cuba.
Expected impacts include strong winds, with hurricane conditions forecasted for the Cayman Islands this afternoon and western Cuba, including Isla de la Juventud, by Wednesday. Jamaica will experience tropical storm conditions until later today. Heavy rainfall, with accumulations of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) in Jamaica and western Cuba, and up to 250 mm (10 inches) in mountainous regions, could lead to flash floods and landslides.
Storm surges could raise sea levels by 1 to 3 feet in the Cayman Islands and 6 to 9 feet along Cuba's southern coast where onshore winds prevail. Additionally, waves generated by Rafael will impact the western Caribbean, leading to hazardous surf conditions. A tornado risk exists for Florida Keys and southwestern Florida on Wednesday.
Residents in the potential impact zones are advised to monitor local weather updates and take necessary precautions.