The tropical storm Rafael, currently situated in the central Caribbean Sea, has intensified and is moving northwest, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern Cuba, according to the latest report from Cuba's Institute of Meteorology (INSMET). On social media, the agency shared that the atmospheric phenomenon is generating maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h and higher gusts, maintaining a central minimum pressure of 994 hPa.
As of noon, Rafael was located approximately 50 km west-southwest of Negril Point, Jamaica; 205 km south-southeast of Grand Cayman; and about 550 km southeast of Punta del Este, on the Isle of Youth. The storm is advancing northwest at a speed of 20 km/h. Forecasts from INSMET suggest that Rafael will maintain a similar path and speed over the next 12 to 24 hours, moving west of Jamaica while progressively gaining strength and organization.
Potential for Hurricane Development
There is a possibility that the system could develop into a hurricane as it nears the Cayman Islands, potentially making landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane. Rainfall is expected to spread to the island's western regions by this afternoon and evening. The wind intensity and maritime conditions across various parts of the country will be contingent on Rafael's trajectory and strength in the coming hours.
In the most recent update on platform X, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that the cyclone's center is positioned west of Jamaica's westernmost point, having previously issued a tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys, USA. Earlier on Tuesday morning, meteorologist José Rubiera urged vigilance regarding Rafael's development, noting that although the storm's center currently lacks significant cloud coverage, this will change as it approaches Cuba.
Tracking Changes and Meteorological Insights
In a YouTube report, popular Cuban meteorologist Rubiera highlighted that the storm is "rapidly gaining structure," which could be further enhanced as it moves through the warm Caribbean Sea. He noted that while the projected paths are currently aligned, they may diverge when crossing Cuba due to an anticyclonic ridge guiding the storm northwest, but potential changes in trajectory remain possible.
Warnings and Precautionary Measures
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and several Cuban provinces, including Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, and Ciego de Ávila. Additionally, a tropical storm alert is in place for the Cuban provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas, the Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, and the Dry Tortugas.
In total, 11 Cuban provinces and the Isle of Youth are under some form of advisory. The warnings indicate that hurricane-force winds could reach affected areas within 36 hours, urging residents to prepare for the storm's impact. Areas under warning may experience tropical storm conditions, with such conditions also possible in alert zones within the next 48 hours. Potential hazards and land impacts include strong winds, with hurricane conditions expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and in western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, on Wednesday.
Public Safety Recommendations
Given the current situation and the forecasted trajectory, INSMET advises the public to stay informed through updates from the Institute of Meteorology's Forecast Center and to implement necessary preventive measures in anticipation of increased strong winds and storm surges along coastal areas as the storm approaches southern Cuban waters. The next official tropical cyclone advisory is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. today, when updated details on Rafael's behavior and safety recommendations will be provided.