The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued its ninth advisory, warning that Tropical Storm Rafael has gained strength and is forecasted to become a hurricane as it approaches or passes over the Cayman Islands within the next 12 hours. The NHC announced on social media platform X that the region should brace for damaging hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surges, and destructive waves.
Rafael's Current Position and Expected Path
According to the latest advisory from the NHC, Tropical Storm Rafael is currently located at 19.1°N 79.6°W, moving northwest at a speed of 15 mph (24 km/h). The minimum recorded pressure is 989 mb, with maximum sustained winds reaching 70 mph (113 km/h). Additional strengthening is expected before Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday, where a hurricane warning is also in effect.
Potential Impact on Surrounding Areas
Tropical storm conditions are anticipated in the Florida Keys, particularly the Lower and Middle Keys, starting Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday night. Rafael is likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the western Caribbean through Thursday, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, as well as the southern and western regions of Cuba. There are warnings of potential flash floods and landslides in the mountainous areas of Jamaica and Cuba.
Preparedness and Government Response
While it is too early to predict what impact this weather system might have on the northern Gulf Coast of the United States, residents in that area are advised to stay updated with regular bulletins. Due to its trajectory, the right side of Rafael, often referred to as the "dirty side" of the storm, is expected to directly impact Havana, potentially causing severe damage, heavy rainfall, and flooding.
The Cuban Civil Defense has placed the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Río, and the special municipality of the Isle of Youth under alert due to the threat of direct impact from Rafael. Measures have been implemented to minimize the damage expected from this meteorological event.
Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel stated on Tuesday that the country is "prepared and organized" to face this new threat, a statement that starkly contrasts with the recent governmental mismanagement during the ongoing crisis. In recent hours, there has been an increase in rainfall and thunderstorms across central and eastern regions of Cuba.