The Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) has issued a warning in its latest bulletin that Tropical Storm Rafael, with sustained winds reaching 68 miles per hour, is on the verge of escalating into a Category 1 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.
In tropical cyclone advisory number six, INSMET reported that Rafael has been consolidating and intensifying throughout the afternoon, nearing hurricane status, which is designated when a weather system achieves sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour.
The bulletin noted a drop in central minimum pressure to 989 hectopascals, with the storm's center situated at 19.5 degrees North latitude and 79.9 degrees West longitude, located near the Cayman Islands and 224 miles southeast of Punta del Este, Isla de la Juventud.
Rafael's Projected Path and Impacts
The system is advancing northwest and has increased its forward speed to 15 miles per hour. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, it is expected to maintain its trajectory and speed, potentially reaching hurricane strength as it travels over waters close to the Cayman Islands.
Precipitation, which has already impacted the eastern and central regions of the country, is anticipated to spread to western Cuba overnight, bringing heavy rainfall with accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches in some areas, as noted by INSMET. Furthermore, easterly to southeasterly winds in the western and central areas will gradually intensify, with gusts potentially exceeding 62 miles per hour by tomorrow afternoon.
Coastal Threats and Civil Defense Measures
The south-central and western coasts are expected to experience strong waves and coastal flooding, affecting provinces such as Sancti Spíritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, Artemisa, Pinar del Río, and the Isla de la Juventud, along with the Canarreos archipelago.
In response to the imminent threat, the Cuban Civil Defense has declared an alert phase from 5:00 p.m. this Tuesday for the provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Sancti Spíritus, due to the potential for direct impact from Tropical Storm Rafael.
A third informational note released on social media platform X indicates that Rafael has demonstrated enhanced organization this Tuesday morning, although it hasn't significantly increased in intensity.
As of 3:00 p.m. Monday, the Cuban Civil Defense established the alert phase for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Río, and the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud, in anticipation of direct impact from the meteorological phenomenon.
Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel announced on Tuesday that the nation is "prepared and organized" to confront this new threat, a claim that starkly contrasts with the government's recent crisis management performance.