The storm known as Rafael has escalated into a Category 1 hurricane this Tuesday afternoon. Previously a mounting threat in the Caribbean, it's now advancing toward western Cuba with a speed of 75 miles per hour (120 km/h). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the United States confirmed at 7:20 p.m. (EST) that Rafael's maximum sustained winds had reached 75 miles per hour (120 km/h), based on aerial reconnaissance data.
Currently, the hurricane's center is positioned 20 miles southeast of Little Cayman in the Caribbean Sea. According to the latest update from the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba (INSMET) at 6:00 p.m. local time, Rafael has shown increased organization and intensity. At this time, the storm was located at latitude 19.5° N and longitude 79.9° W, near the Cayman Islands and approximately 360 km southeast of Punta del Este, Isla de la Juventud.
Expected Path and Impact on Cuba
Rafael is maintaining a northwesterly course with a translational speed of 24 km/h. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, it is anticipated to continue on this path, moving closer to the Cayman Islands, where it might further intensify. The heavy rains and thunderstorms that have already affected eastern and central Cuba are expected to spread to the west overnight and into the early morning, with rainfall amounts ranging from 100 to 200 mm in 24 hours.
Moreover, wind speeds in the western and central regions of Cuba are forecasted to increase from 35 to 50 km/h, escalating to between 85 and 100 km/h with higher gusts by Wednesday afternoon. The southern central and western coasts of Cuba are likely to experience strong swells, with potential for moderate to severe coastal flooding in the provinces of Sancti Spíritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, Artemisa, and Pinar del Río, as well as on the Isla de la Juventud and the Canarreos Archipelago.