The Cuban Institute of Meteorology's Forecast Center (INSMET) issued Tropical Cyclone Alert No. 8 early Wednesday, announcing that Hurricane Rafael, currently a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, is expected to strengthen further. According to a statement shared on social media, Rafael's maximum sustained winds have increased to 130 kilometers per hour, and its central minimum pressure has dropped to 985 hectoPascal.
By midnight, the hurricane's center was located at 20.0 degrees north latitude and 80.6 degrees west longitude, approximately 270 kilometers southeast of Punta del Este on the Isla de la Juventud. INSMET reported that the hurricane has maintained a northwest trajectory, slowing its forward speed to 20 kilometers per hour.
In the next 12 to 24 hours, Rafael is expected to continue on a similar path and speed, approaching the waters south of the Canarreos archipelago while gradually intensifying. So far, rain, showers, and thunderstorms have been reported in the eastern and central regions, expanding toward western Cuba. These conditions will persist over the next 24 hours, potentially leading to heavy and intense rainfall in certain areas, with accumulations ranging from 100 to 200 millimeters.
Increasing Winds and Coastal Concerns
During the early morning and morning hours, winds are expected to blow from the east to southeast in the western and central regions, reaching speeds of 35 to 50 kilometers per hour. By afternoon, the direction will shift to southeast-south, intensifying to 85 to 100 kilometers per hour, with stronger gusts. Hurricane-force winds are anticipated in areas near Rafael's center as it moves through the western region.
Significant swells are projected along the southern coasts of the central and western regions, with moderate to severe coastal flooding likely in the southern parts of Sancti Spíritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, Artemisa, and Pinar del Río, as well as in the Isla de la Juventud and the Canarreos archipelago.
Electricity Challenges Amidst the Storm
Given Rafael's current position and projected path, residents are advised to closely monitor its development and stay informed through updates from the Institute of Meteorology's Forecast Center. The arrival of Hurricane Rafael poses an additional threat to the Cuban population, which is already grappling with limited access to electricity.
On Tuesday night, the country faced an unprecedented deficit of 1,750 MW in its electricity generation capacity, resulting in power outages lasting up to 20 hours in various regions. This shortage has been exacerbated by malfunctions in several thermoelectric plants, including the recent shutdown of unit 4 at the "Carlos Manuel de Céspedes" Thermoelectric Plant, along with a shortage of fuel.