Despite the looming threat of Hurricane Rafael approaching Cuban territory, the Electric Union (UNE) has forecasted power outages for Wednesday night reaching up to 1,354 MW. This figure is expected to increase to approximately 1,400 MW during the day. This means that, beyond the disruptions caused by the hurricane, Cubans should anticipate blackouts well in advance.
The report on the status of the National Electric System (SEN) for November 6, 2024, indicated that yesterday's power service was disrupted for 24 hours due to a generation capacity shortfall, a problem that persisted into the early hours of today. The peak impact from this deficit occurred at 6:20 PM, reaching 1,768 MW, although it did not coincide with the peak demand period.
Unexpected Challenges and Regional Impact
This level of disruption exceeded expectations due to higher-than-predicted demand, the unexpected shutdown of unit 4 at the Cienfuegos Thermal Power Plant (CTE), and the failure to restore power at the Melones barge due to fuel issues, as reported by the UNE. Additionally, Guantánamo experienced a 3 MW impact due to the hurricane's passage.
As of 7:00 AM today, SEN's availability stood at 1,500 MW, against a demand of 2,550 MW, resulting in a capacity shortfall of 1,095 MW. It is anticipated that by midday, the deficit will rise to 1,400 MW, particularly affecting the central-eastern region due to energy transfers to that area.
Thermal Generation Limitations
Several generating units are currently out of service: unit 5 of Mariel CTE, unit 5 of Nuevitas CTE, unit 4 of Cienfuegos CTE, unit 2 of Felton CTE, and unit 3 of Renté CTE. Additionally, maintenance is ongoing for unit 2 of Santa Cruz CTE, unit 3 of Cienfuegos CTE, unit 1 of Felton CTE, and unit 5 of Renté CTE. Thermal generation constraints total 335 MW.
A total of 78 distributed generation plants are offline due to fuel shortages, representing 429 MW unavailable, along with the Santiago de Cuba barge, which has a capacity of 64 MW, bringing the total unavailable to 493 MW for this reason.
Efforts to Mitigate Power Deficits
For the peak demand period, it is anticipated that two engines will be activated on the Melones barge, adding 36 MW, and 80 MW will be restored in distributed generation plants currently offline due to fuel shortages. With this forecast, availability is expected to reach 1,616 MW to cover a maximum demand of 2,900 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,284 MW.
Under these circumstances, a 1,354 MW disruption is expected during peak hours if the situation remains unchanged.