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Hurricane Rafael's Path Likely to Spare Havana from Direct Impact

Wednesday, November 6, 2024 by Emily Vargas

Hurricane Rafael's Path Likely to Spare Havana from Direct Impact
Wind map associated with Hurricane Rafael - Image © nhc.noaa.gov

As Hurricane Rafael intensifies on its approach toward western Cuba, meteorological agencies suggest a high likelihood that its eye will steer clear of Havana. According to one of the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm's right side, often referred to as the "dirty side," was initially predicted to hit Cuba's capital directly.

The International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University noted that Rafael's most intense section could bring strong winds, torrential rains, and dangerous surf, heightening the risk of disasters in Havana. Yet, in its latest update on Rafael's potential path, the NHC reported, "the official track forecast has shifted left of the previous prediction," indicating that the storm might veer away from the capital.

The "Dirty Side" Explained

The NHC explained that the "right side of the storm" is defined relative to its movement. For instance, "if the hurricane is moving west, the right side is north of the storm; if it moves north, the right side is east, and so forth." With Rafael heading westward, the storm's "dirty side" would point toward the geographic north, potentially reducing the threat to Havana's residents.

Conditions Favoring Rafael's Strengthening

Rafael is expected to remain in a conducive environment for strengthening as it nears western Cuba. The hurricane will pass over warm waters and encounter light to moderate vertical wind shear. The NHC's latest report mentioned that an apparent eyewall replacement cycle might slow its rapid intensification, but it is very likely that Rafael will become a major hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba later today.

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