The Cuban Electric Utility (UNE) and the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM) have declared that they will initiate a "voluntary power shutdown" in regions affected by Hurricane Rafael once wind speeds reach 60 km/h. This measure is intended to safeguard infrastructure and protect lives. MINEM stated on their social media platform that the controlled disconnection of distribution circuits will occur to thwart accidents and failures within the electrical networks.
Lázaro Guerra Hernández, the General Director of Electricity at MINEM, reiterated this plan during a broadcast on Cuban television. "As winds increase to 60 km/h, we will proceed with a voluntary shutdown to prevent damage to infrastructure and safeguard the community," he emphasized. This process will be implemented progressively in western areas to mitigate such risks. "We consistently enact this protocol during similar events to avert damage from energized lines," Guerra Hernández added.
Ongoing Power Challenges Amid Hurricane Threat
Despite the looming threat of Hurricane Rafael, the UNE has forecasted significant power outages of 1,354 MW during the night, which are expected to rise to 1,400 MW during the day. This indicates that Cubans should brace for power interruptions well before the hurricane's impact.
The National Electric System's (SEN) report for November 6, 2024, highlighted continuous outages over the past 24 hours due to a pronounced shortfall in generation capacity—a situation persisting into the early hours of today. The peak shortfall reached 1,768 MW at 6:20 p.m., surpassing previous expectations due to higher-than-anticipated demand, unexpected shutdown of Unit 4 at CTE Cienfuegos, and fuel-related issues at Melones.
Current State of Power Generation Units
As of 7:00 a.m. today, SEN's capacity stood at 1,500 MW against a demand of 2,550 MW, resulting in a 1,095 MW shortfall. By midday, the deficit is expected to rise to 1,400 MW, particularly affecting central-eastern regions due to energy transfers.
Multiple generation units are currently out of operation: Unit 5 of CTE Mariel, Unit 5 of CTE Nuevitas, Unit 4 of CTE Cienfuegos, Unit 2 of CTE Felton, and Unit 3 of CTE Renté. Additionally, maintenance is ongoing for Unit 2 of CTE Santa Cruz, Unit 3 of CTE Cienfuegos, Unit 1 of CTE Felton, and Unit 5 of CTE Renté, leading to a thermal generation limitation of 335 MW.
A total of 78 distributed generation plants are offline due to fuel shortages, accounting for 429 MW of capacity loss, alongside the 64 MW Santiago de Cuba plant, totaling 493 MW unavailable. During peak hours, the anticipated activation of two engines at Melones could add 36 MW, with an additional 80 MW expected to be restored from distributed plants currently out of service.
With these adjustments, the forecast suggests availability of 1,616 MW to meet a maximum demand of 2,900 MW, yielding a deficit of 1,284 MW. The predicted outage impact of 1,354 MW during peak times may fluctuate with the impending arrival of Hurricane Rafael, expected to make landfall later today.