The Cuban Electric Union (UNE) has issued a warning about a challenging weekend for the National Electric System (SEN), forecasting over 700 MW of power outages during peak hours this Sunday. Despite ongoing recovery efforts after Hurricane Rafael, the system continues to face significant challenges, according to the latest UNE report.
On Saturday, the highest recorded power shortfall due to generation capacity deficits reached 545 MW at 6:10 PM, aligning with the period of peak demand. The provinces most severely impacted included Matanzas, Cienfuegos, Camagüey, and Guantánamo. The situation persisted until 9:02 PM, when there was a partial restoration of services.
Consequences of System Failures and Ongoing Deficits
In addition to generation shortfalls, the aftermath of Hurricane Rafael continues to disrupt the electrical grid. At peak demand on Saturday, approximately 478 MW were lost due to distribution network failures in Pinar del Río (96 MW), Artemisa (140 MW), Havana (191 MW), and Mayabeque (51 MW).
This scenario highlights not only the system's fragility but also the accumulated burden from inadequate maintenance and outdated infrastructure. By 7:00 AM on Sunday, SEN's availability stood at 1,950 MW, while demand was at 1,700 MW, temporarily preventing further outages.
Nevertheless, 286 MW remained offline due to continued failures in Pinar del Río (52 MW), Artemisa (135 MW), Havana (80 MW), and Mayabeque (19 MW), forecasting a tough day ahead.
Worrying Nighttime Forecasts
The UNE anticipates a shortfall reaching 650 MW during the nighttime peak, with maximum demand expected to hit 2,600 MW. This could lead to outages of up to 720 MW, exacerbating the situation for already hard-hit areas. The state-run company predicts that recovery from these outages might extend into the early morning hours.
The report also noted several thermal power plants offline, including unit 5 of the CTE Mariel, unit 2 of the CTE Felton, and units of the CTE Renté, alongside others undergoing maintenance. These thermal generation constraints total 500 MW, compounded by fuel shortages that have rendered 28 distributed generation plants, with a combined capacity of 121 MW, inoperative.
Outlook for Cuban Citizens
Cuba's energy situation remains dire, with the SEN struggling to maintain stability. The predicted outages for this Sunday underscore the reality that the island's electric crisis will not see a swift resolution. Ongoing failures and generation deficits force millions of Cubans to endure prolonged blackouts, impacting not only household comfort but also economic activity and daily life.
The UNE has reiterated its commitment to recovery and maintenance efforts, yet stable power supply expectations seem distant. The reliance on aging infrastructure and the scarcity of resources remain the primary challenges for Cuba's electric sector.