A tropical wave currently traversing the central Caribbean Sea is expected to evolve into a tropical depression by the weekend, according to the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The likelihood of this development occurring within the next 48 hours stands at 40 percent, but this probability rises significantly to 80 percent over the next seven days.
Presently, the system is moving westward, which is somewhat reassuring for Cuba. It is generating "an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms," as described by the NHC. The center emphasized that "environmental conditions appear favorable for development," making it likely that a tropical depression will take shape by the end of the week as the system moves gradually.
Following this, the disturbance is expected to linger over the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend and begin a slow movement generally towards the northwest as early as next week. The NHC has advised those with interests in the western Caribbean to stay alert to the system's progress.
Rubiera Urges Vigilance
Renowned Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera has issued a warning regarding this tropical wave and urged Cubans to stay informed about its development. "It's crucial that we closely monitor this system's evolution, as conditions in the western Caribbean remain conducive to cyclonic development," Rubiera stated.
He highlighted the role of warm waters and atmospheric moisture in potentially intensifying the tropical wave. Additionally, he stressed the importance of individuals in areas that could be affected to remain informed as the system progresses towards Central America.
The potential relief for Cuba lies in the system's current slow westward movement, suggesting it might not impact the country directly. Cuba has already been hard-hit by two hurricanes in just two weeks: first Oscar in Guantánamo, followed by Rafael affecting Artemisa and other western provinces.
If a new tropical storm forms, it will be named Sara, marking the 18th storm of the current hurricane season. Despite the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season not arriving until November 30, meteorological threats continue unabated.
In recent days, another weather phenomenon—a low-pressure trough located in the eastern Caribbean Sea—also frightened Cubans, particularly in the eastern region. This area has barely recovered from the severe damage inflicted by hurricane Oscar.