A tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea, with high chances of becoming a tropical depression soon, is under close watch by the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET). "A broad area of low pressure has emerged this morning within this active tropical wave. This system will slowly move westward across the western Caribbean Sea over the next few days, where it will encounter favorable atmospheric and marine conditions for further organization and development. There is a high likelihood of it evolving into a tropical cyclone within two or three days," stated Cuban meteorologist Frank Fernández Castañeda.
Fernández Castañeda further noted that numerical weather prediction models suggest various potential paths for this potential tropical cyclone. Of particular concern is that some models predict the weather phenomenon, which would be named Sara if it becomes a tropical storm, could cross over western Cuba.
Uncertainty Amid Predictions
Despite these forecasts, Fernández Castañeda cautions, "Since a cyclonic system hasn't yet formed and considering the atmosphere's unpredictability, it's not possible to confidently predict paths or intensities. Therefore, without a formed cyclone, we cannot definitively state that our territory will be impacted."
Adding to the concern, journalist Lázaro Manuel Alonso shared on Facebook that, "Although the system has yet to form for more accurate forecasts, some model runs at this hour suggest worrisome trajectories. Thus, the Insmet Forecast Center continues to monitor this low-pressure zone due to its location and the time of year."
U.S. National Hurricane Center's Outlook
In its latest bulletin, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasted the formation of a new tropical depression within 48 hours. The meteorological organization highlighted that a broad area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea continues to generate extensive rainfall and thunderstorms, with favorable environmental conditions for development.
As previously indicated by the NHC, the system is currently moving slowly westward across the western Caribbean Sea. However, it is likely to shift its trajectory toward the northwest next week, significantly heightening concerns for Cuban territory.
"Further development is likely as the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea throughout the weekend. The system is expected to gradually turn northwest early next week," added the NHC.
The National Hurricane Center advised that interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor this system's progress. Regardless of development, heavy rains are imminent over Jamaica.
The U.S. Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.