The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a new tropical wave in the central Caribbean that could develop into Tropical Cyclone "Sara" in the coming days. If it forms, it would be the eighteenth named storm in the active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Although forecasts are still uncertain, there is a moderate chance that its path could impact Cuba.
According to the latest NHC report, this tropical wave is currently producing "disorganized showers and thunderstorms" over the central Caribbean Sea, situated southeast of Jamaica. Propelled by a low-pressure area, the system is moving westward at speeds between six and 11 miles per hour, potentially heading towards the mainland of Central America.
The NHC has noted that "environmental conditions appear favorable for development," increasing the likelihood that the system might evolve into a tropical depression within the next two to three days. Should this occur, and the cyclone achieves sufficient organization and strength, it would be named "Sara," following the recent storms like Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Rafael.
Forecasted Path of Sara and Its Caribbean Impact
While it's too early to pinpoint a definite trajectory, initial projections suggest the system could move westward, affecting areas such as Jamaica and Hispaniola, where residents should stay alert to weather advisories. As the system strengthens and progresses through the western Caribbean, the NHC anticipates a potential shift towards the northwest early next week, possibly targeting regions near Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.
Although the chance of Sara making landfall in Cuba is currently low, the NHC emphasizes that forecasts can change in the coming days, with meteorologists maintaining vigilant observation of the system.
Expected Weather Impacts in the Caribbean and Cuba
The influence of this tropical wave is already being felt in the central Caribbean, with heavy rains and thunderstorms, particularly around Hispaniola. As the low-pressure area advances west, the NHC predicts increasingly unstable atmospheric conditions, leading to stronger winds in Cuba, especially in the island's northwestern region, with north and northeast winds anticipated from Thursday onward.
By Friday, it's expected that the low-pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean will cause rough seas and strong winds in the area until Sunday night. This weather will be further intensified by a stationary front located northeast of Puerto Rico, generating significant wave activity impacting the region.
If Tropical Cyclone Sara materializes, its consequences could include heavy rainfall, moderate to strong winds, and increased wave heights, potentially disrupting maritime activities and causing coastal flooding in northwest Cuba and other parts of the western Caribbean.
The NHC estimates a 60% chance for this system to become a cyclone within the next 48 hours, rising to 90% over the next seven days. Meteorological authorities urge residents in the region to keep up with forecast updates and prepare for possible situations associated with the potential formation of this tropical cyclone in the Caribbean.