Meteorologist José Rubiera has recently cautioned via his YouTube channel that western Cuba, along with central and southern Florida, should be particularly vigilant regarding the development and trajectory of Tropical Storm Sara once it forms. He elaborated on the reasons for this heightened alert.
Rubiera explained that although the current motion of the storm appears to be heading west, it is anticipated that it may stall due to insufficient conditions. This stagnation could be followed by a northeastward turn next week as it interacts with an expected trough.
"I must warn you, this tropical system will require patience," Rubiera stated at the beginning of his engaging and educational explanation, which has endeared him to his audience over decades. The retired meteorologist made his report before Tropical Depression 19 had formed, emphasizing that tropical systems do not move independently but are carried by steering currents influenced by anticyclones and troughs.
"The air current acts like a balloon carrying the tropical cyclone in one direction or another. If there's no strong air flow, it stagnates and remains stationary, which is what we expect in this case," he clarified. The potential storm or hurricane Sara could linger for several days, waiting for a trough expected early next week, which might propel the system rapidly northeastward.
"Two or three days stationary, without movement, waiting for the trough. When it arrives, it must 'capture it' and accelerate it northeast," Rubiera remarked, demonstrating how numerous models predict the storm's imminent evolution, although these models become less reliable as days progress.
Highlighting the many possible outcomes, Rubiera noted, "This depends on the chronological time. The uncertainty in these models is evident," as he displayed a range of potential paths, some posing significant risk to western Cuba, particularly Pinar del Río, and to Florida.
"It's simply a matter of time, chronological time, and this is why we see all these variations, from Yucatán to western Cuba and Florida," he continued.
Rubiera emphasized that the regions needing careful monitoring for Sara's development and progression include northern Honduras, Yucatán, Belize, northern Guatemala, western Cuba, and central and southern Florida, warning of the potential severity of the storm.