The Spanish think tank, Real Instituto Elcano, which is funded by both private contributions and the government of Socialist Pedro Sánchez, forecasts that Cuba's energy crisis will be "long-lasting" and further exacerbate the "critical situation" the country is facing. This prediction comes from researcher Ignacio Urbasos Arbeola in his article titled "Electrical and Political Blackout in Cuba," published in the Climate and Energy section.
According to Urbasos Arbeola, "In the short term, the Cuban government lacks the resources to address the crisis, which is expected to prolong, worsening the already dire conditions on the island." The Elcano report identifies the "political blackout" in Cuba as the "real barrier" to the island's progress, attributing frequent power outages to Venezuela and stalled floating power plants. The report also suggests that Trump will pressure Mexico to halt oil shipments to Miguel Díaz-Canel's regime.
The researcher concludes that "The real obstacle to the island's progress remains the political blackout that has plagued Havana for decades, along with the regime's inability to handle each crisis effectively."
The Worst Crisis Since the Special Period
The Elcano Institute's analyst believes Cuba is enduring "its worst economic crisis since the Special Period in the 1990s." Evidence of this is seen in October, when Cubans experienced some form of electricity rationing 97% of the time, along with an unprecedented mass blackout between the 18th and 22nd of that month.
The situation in Cuba was "masked" in recent years due to Venezuelan oil shipments. However, those shipments dwindled after 2016, and relations worsened when Biden allowed Venezuela to re-enter international markets in 2022. This backdrop set the stage for the August 2022 fire at the Matanzas supertanker facility, resulting in a loss of over a million barrels of oil, from which the regime has yet to recover.
Since then, Mexico and Russia have replaced Venezuela as Cuba's oil suppliers. Still, with Trump's potential return to the White House, it is anticipated that Washington will threaten Pemex (Mexico's state oil company) with exclusion from the U.S. debt market if it continues its support of the Cuban dictatorship, likely leading to a cessation of aid.
The Elcano Institute is the same entity that, in July 2023, labeled Cuba as a failed state.