This Wednesday marks the arrival of the first cold front of the winter season to Cuba, promising a drop in temperatures along with showers and rain in the western part of the island. The weather system is making its way through the Gulf of Mexico, and it's preceded by a pre-frontal band with heavy shower activity, thunderstorms, and rain, which will begin impacting western Cuba from late morning through the afternoon, according to meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez on social media.
Ruisánchez noted that the rain and storms may be particularly intense, especially in the northern coastal areas. The cold front will usher in cooler days and chilly mornings. The Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) reported in its latest bulletin that the western part of the country will be under the influence of showers and some thunderstorms on the afternoon of November 20.
Weather Conditions Across Cuba
The morning will start with mostly clear skies, though cloud cover is expected to increase progressively from noon, particularly in Pinar del Río and Artemisa, where rainfall will be more pronounced. These conditions are expected to gradually spread to the rest of the western region.
In the central and eastern areas, the day will begin with partly cloudy skies, with more cloud cover over northern coastal areas, where isolated showers could occur in the morning. For the remainder of the day, most of the territory will experience limited cloudiness, with a slight increase around midday.
Temperature and Wind Changes
Maximum temperatures will range between 28 and 31 degrees Celsius, with higher values in some southern eastern locales. At night, temperatures will drop to between 21 and 24 degrees Celsius. Winds will generally be light and variable across most of the country. In the west, winds will shift from the south to the southwest in the afternoon, reaching speeds of 10 to 25 km/h, and will turn northwest along the northern coast during the night.
The sea will remain calm along the central northern coast, while there will be slight waves in the rest of the coastal areas, calming to tranquil waters in the eastern region by the afternoon. INSMET advises caution in the west, particularly in areas with a higher likelihood of thunderstorms.
Impact Beyond Cuba
This cold front affecting Cuba will also be felt in southern Florida, where rain and a temperature drop are expected. Meteorologist Elier Pila Fariñas reminded readers in an article on Cubadebate that "the 'cold' is not brought about by the fronts themselves but by the air mass trailing them." He also mentioned that the arrival of the front might suggest the gradual end of the hurricane season, although the official closure is not until November 30.
Winter Outlook
The meteorologist further explained that the Climate Center of the Institute of Meteorology projects near-normal rainfall for the dry season, which spans from November to April. This period accounts for nearly a quarter of the annual precipitation, largely influenced by cold fronts near or over Cuba. As for temperatures, maximum values are expected to remain within normal ranges, although from February to April, they might approach the upper limit of climatic behavior. Conversely, minimum temperatures are expected to behave differently: "While they will stay within the normal range in both quarters, they will be closer to the upper values in the first."
He concluded by emphasizing that climate forecasts are made in relation to typical behavior for the period, which doesn't rule out the possibility of experiencing very cold days, as many hope.