Despite the Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Power Plant in Matanzas reconnecting to the National Electric System (SEN) just before midnight on Sunday, Cubans are bracing for significant power outages on Monday. The anticipated shortfall is a staggering 1,365 MW during peak hours. This indicates that the reconnection of the nation's largest power plant may not provide immediate relief, as nine other thermoelectric units remain offline due to breakdowns and maintenance.
On Sunday, the highest disruption was recorded at 1,492 MW around 6:10 p.m., coinciding with peak demand. Félix Estrada, the head of the National Load Dispatch, mentioned on Cuban television that the full power load was briefly restored in the early hours of Monday.
However, despite the power restoration at 12:42 a.m., interruptions resumed at 5:05 a.m. By 7:00 a.m., the SEN's availability was 1,710 MW against a demand of 2,030 MW, resulting in a deficit of 396 MW. As the day progresses, this shortfall is expected to reach 650 MW by midday.
Challenges in Power Generation
Several thermal units are currently out of service. Five thermoelectric units are down: unit 5 at CTE Mariel, unit 1 at CTE Santa Cruz, unit 5 at CTE Nuevitas, unit 3 at CTE Renté, and unit 2 at CTE Felton. Additionally, four units are under maintenance: unit 2 at CTE Santa Cruz, units 3 and 4 at CTE Cienfuegos, and unit 5 at CTE Renté, limiting thermal generation by 353 MW.
Impact of Fuel Shortages
The distributed generation sector is also facing challenges, with 45 plants offline due to fuel shortages, impacting 236 MW. Adding to this, the floating power station in Santiago de Cuba contributes an additional 64 MW to the total of 300 MW affected by fuel issues.
Looking ahead to peak hours, two engines are expected to come online at the Santiago de Cuba floating power station, providing an additional 25 MW, and unit 3 at CTE Renté, with a capacity of 70 MW, is also set to start. With these additions, the projected availability will be 1,805 MW against an estimated peak demand of 3,100 MW, leading to a deficit of 1,295 MW.
Under these circumstances, Cuba faces a forecasted power outage impact of up to 1,365 MW during peak consumption times.