The Cuban Electric Union (UNE) has released a statement detailing the dire condition of the National Electric System (SEN) anticipated for November 28, 2024. The statement highlights a severe shortfall in power generation capacity, leading to ongoing nationwide disruptions in electricity supply.
On the previous day, the nation experienced a complete power outage lasting 24 hours, with the peak disruption reaching 1,580 MW at 6:10 PM. Although service was temporarily restored at 2:58 AM, outages resumed by 5:09 AM. During the peak demand period, an additional 13 MW was lost due to network failures in Artemisa, reportedly caused by Hurricane Rafael.
Thursday’s Outlook Remains Grim
As of 7:00 AM on November 28, the SEN's available capacity was reported at 1,750 MW, while demand soared to 2,180 MW, resulting in a 458 MW shortfall in generation. Additionally, the 13 MW outage in Artemisa persists due to hurricane-induced damage.
The midday forecast predicts a deficit of 800 MW. The country continues to grapple with power generation issues owing to broken units (unit 5 at CTE Mariel and unit 2 at CTE Felton) and units under maintenance (unit 2 at CTE Santa Cruz, units 3 and 4 at CTE Cienfuegos, and unit 5 at CTE Renté).
Thermal limitations account for 427 MW and fuel shortages are causing 381 MW to be offline. By nightfall, the expected availability is 1,840 MW against a peak demand of 3,160 MW, leading to a projected deficit of 1,320 MW. If conditions persist, peak time disruptions could reach up to 1,390 MW.
This scenario highlights the vulnerability of Cuba's electric grid, exacerbated by breakdowns, scheduled maintenance, and fuel shortages. Authorities have announced the activation of six engines at the CDE Moa, adding 90 MW to the system. However, this measure falls short of meeting the projected high demand.