The Cuban National Electric System (SEN) is grappling with one of its most severe crises, facing an estimated shortfall of 1,580 MW during peak hours this Friday, November 29. The situation, exacerbated by mechanical failures, fuel shortages, and damage from the recent Hurricane Rafael, is putting the island's already fragile energy network in a precarious position, leading to widespread blackouts that experts warn could last for days.
"For peak hours, we estimate an availability of 1,710 MW and a maximum demand of 3,200 MW, resulting in a shortfall of 1,510 MW. If these conditions persist, we predict an impact of 1,580 MW during this time," stated the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) in its daily update on social media. The day before, the state-run company headed by Alfredo López Valdés had forecast "disruptions" of 1,390 MW, but by Friday, as is often the case, acknowledged that the outages had reached 1,551 MW.
Strained System at Its Breaking Point
At 7:00 a.m. today, the SEN's availability was 1,710 MW against a demand of 2,200 MW, leaving more than 480 MW without service. However, the situation worsens as the day progresses. For peak hours, the UNE estimates demand will reach 3,200 MW, leading to a deficit of 1,510 MW and disruptions close to 1,600 MW.
The outlook is further complicated by the shutdown of key units, such as Unit 5 of the CTE Mariel and Unit 2 of the CTE Felton, along with scheduled maintenance at other plants like Santa Cruz, Cienfuegos, and Renté. Adding to these challenges are limitations in thermal generation, which reach 427 MW, and fuel shortages that have taken 53 distributed generation plants offline, reducing capacity by 372 MW.
The recent passage of Hurricane Rafael has left its mark on the electrical system, impacting 13 MW in Artemisa province due to damage to power lines. While the UNE is working to restore the most affected areas, the recovery of service has been slow and intermittent.
Planned Outages in Havana
In the capital, the Havana Electric Company released a notice detailing today's power cuts. According to the statement, the outages will affect different time blocks:
- Blocks #3 and #4: From 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
- Block #2: From 3:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m.
- Block #1: From 6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.
These cuts are designed to distribute the impact of the energy emergency in a rotating manner, but they have sparked further dissatisfaction among residents, who complain about the lack of stability and organization in the announced schedules.
Outrage, Desperation, and an Uncertain Future
The energy crisis not only disrupts the daily lives of Cubans but has also unleashed a wave of criticism on social media and in the streets. The recent approval of Decree 110, which regulates planned blackouts of up to 72 hours under an "energy contingency regime," has intensified public discontent, fueling a climate of widespread dissatisfaction.
Users on social media describe the situation as "torture" and demand immediate solutions for a system they deem collapsed. With massive outages and a structural deficit in power generation, the UNE faces one of its most complex challenges in decades. While the government attempts to justify the crisis with external and climatic causes, the reality for Cubans translates into nights without electricity, wasted food, and an increasingly precarious quality of life.
The collapse of the electrical system not only highlights technical failures but also reveals a model unable to meet the basic needs of the population, deepening despair in a country that, quite literally, cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel.