Aging Populations: Latin America and the Caribbean Face Doubling of Seniors Over 65 by 2050

Latin America and the Caribbean are experiencing a rapid increase in their aging populations, according to a report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The report forecasts that by 2050, individuals over the age of 65 will account for nearly 19% of the region's inhabitants, a figure that is double the current percentage. This surge means that the number of seniors will grow from 65 million in 2024 to 138 million within just 25 years, presenting substantial social and economic challenges, as highlighted in ECLAC's latest demographic observation report.

The shift in population age structure is part of a demographic transition characterized by unexpectedly rapid declines in birth and death rates. This has significantly altered the age distribution in the region, warned ECLAC. Back in 1950, over 40% of the population was under 15 years of age, whereas today, that figure has dropped to 22%. In contrast, those of working age now make up more than 67% of the population, indicating a profound demographic shift.

Moreover, the median age has risen from 18 years in 1950 to 31 years in 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach 40 years by 2050. According to the study, the population of Latin America and the Caribbean reached 663 million people in 2024, marking a 3.8% decrease from the projections made in 2000, which estimated a total of 689 million inhabitants. ECLAC also notes that under current projections, the region's population is expected to peak at approximately 730 million by 2053.

Initially, projections pointed to higher fertility and mortality rates for Latin America and the Caribbean, without foreseeing the effects of migratory movements or demographic changes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite being labeled the most unequal region globally, Latin America saw economic growth rebounding to 6.9% in 2021 after the pandemic-induced crisis, but the pace slowed to 3.7% in 2022 and further to 2.2% in 2023. In August, ECLAC revised its 2024 growth forecast downward to 1.8%, three-tenths less than previously estimated.

The report also emphasizes the pressing need to ensure policies that support healthy and equitable aging, with a particular focus on women, who traditionally bear the brunt of familial caregiving responsibilities. It underscores that the challenges related to aging are exacerbated in a context of economic inequality and regional growth deceleration, which in 2024 fell far short of initial expectations.

In Cuba, the nation faces a significant demographic transformation marked by a swift aging population, driven partly by declining birth rates and increasing migration. By the end of 2023, demographic data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) revealed a worrying trend: 24.4% of Cubans were aged 60 or older, as outlined in the report "The Aging of the Population. Cuba and its Territories 2023".

This figure starkly highlights two realities: the impact of persistently low birth rates and a rising migration of economically active individuals. In July, the Cuban government released official data indicating that the island's population had reduced by more than 10% over the past three years. Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, Deputy Chief of ONEI, acknowledged during the third ordinary session of the National Assembly of People's Power that by the end of 2023, the "effective population" of Cuba was 10,055,968 citizens, but by 2024, it had fallen below 10 million.

The Cuban government defines "effective population" as everyone who, within a calendar year, was born in the country or elsewhere but resides permanently, having accumulated 180 days or more of residence over the last 365 days and has not died. These statistics were shared during the presentation of the Migration Law project, confirming a 10.1% population decrease compared to the records from December 31, 2020.