On Saturday, Cuba's electricity forecast remains dire due to a significant shortfall in power generation capacity. This is primarily caused by multiple breakdowns at thermoelectric plants and a lack of fuel for distributed generation. According to the official report shared by the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) on their Facebook page, the availability of the National Electroenergetic System (SEN) at 7:00 a.m. stood at 1,480 MW, while the demand reached 1,875 MW, resulting in an initial deficit of 408 MW.
The peak hour forecast for Saturday predicts a shortfall of 1,484 MW, with an estimated impact of up to 1,554 MW. Key breakdowns include Unit 5 of the Mariel Thermoelectric Plant (CTE), Unit 2 of the Felton CTE, and Units 3 and 6 of the Renté CTE. Additionally, several units remain under maintenance, including those at Santa Cruz, Cienfuegos, Nuevitas, and Boca de Jaruco plants, further limiting generation capacity.
Compounding the thermoelectric issues is the unavailability of 37 distributed generation plants due to fuel shortages, affecting 392 MW. Moreover, two engines are out of service on the floating power plant in Santiago de Cuba and the CDE Moa. In Artemisa province, an additional 8 MW are offline due to electrical network damage from Hurricane Rafael in early November.
The UNE noted that some units might be partially reintroduced, but an immediate solution is not anticipated for the evening. This scenario underscores the fragility of the SEN, which is facing a complex situation due to a combination of technical, operational, and logistical challenges.
Last Thursday, a massive blackout impacted several Cuban provinces following a failure at the Lidio Ramón Pérez CTE, commonly known as Felton, located in Holguín. According to a brief UNE report, the incident occurred at 19:33 hours when Block 1 of the plant automatically shut down, halting its operation.
Despite the announcement on Friday morning about Felton's synchronization with the SEN, UNE reported an availability of 1,610 MW against a demand of 2,000 MW at 7:00 a.m., resulting in a 456 MW deficit. For peak hours, a capacity of 1,745 MW was forecasted against an estimated demand of 3,100 MW, leaving a deficit of 1,355 MW and a projected impact of 1,425 MW.
This situation has led to widespread frustration among Cubans, with Santiago priest Leandro NaunHung summarizing it with ironic resignation: “We’re in for a Christmas without colorful lights,” alluding to the season. His comment, dripping with irony, reflects not only the harshness of the current conditions but also the hope many Cubans hold for a more prosperous life under a different political system.
Key Issues in Cuba's Power Crisis
What are the main causes of the power shortages in Cuba?
The primary causes of power shortages in Cuba are breakdowns at thermoelectric plants and a lack of fuel for distributed generation facilities.
How is the power deficit expected to change during peak hours?
During peak hours, the power deficit is expected to increase to 1,484 MW, with an estimated impact of up to 1,554 MW.
What impact did Hurricane Rafael have on the power supply?
Hurricane Rafael caused damage to electrical networks in Artemisa province, resulting in an additional 8 MW being taken offline.