The regime of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria, a cornerstone of the geopolitical alliance with Russia, Iran, and Cuba, has collapsed after 53 years of Ba'athist rule. In a swift offensive, armed opposition forces seized the capital, Damascus, forcing the former leader to flee. His whereabouts are currently unknown, as reported by ABC News.
This downfall marks a significant setback for Syria's long-standing allies, particularly Havana, which has maintained solid diplomatic relations with the Syrian government for years, offering international support and establishing cooperation agreements.
Strategic Coalition: Cuba, Syria, Russia, and Iran
The fall of Damascus is a severe blow to the coalition formed by Havana, Moscow, and Tehran, which supported Al-Assad for over a decade in major international forums and on the battlefield. Since the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, Cuba has been one of Bashar Al-Assad's primary diplomatic defenders.
Havana has repeatedly voted against United Nations Human Rights Council resolutions condemning human rights violations in Syria, dismissing them as "external interference." In a 2016 interview with Prensa Latina, Bashar Al-Assad expressed his "deep gratitude" to the Cuban government for its unwavering support and sent "warm greetings" to the people of the island. This bond was further strengthened by then Cuban Minister of Foreign Trade, Rodrigo Malmierca, who promised Cuba's assistance in the future reconstruction of Syria once the armed conflict ended.
Regime Collapse and Al-Assad's Escape
In a lightning military operation, opposition forces first captured Homs, a key strategic city, before swiftly advancing towards Damascus. The regime's collapse was accelerated by mass defections within the Syrian armed forces, whose loyalty to the president crumbled as opposition troops closed in on the capital. According to insurgent sources, Al-Assad is believed to have left the country by plane, although this information has not been officially confirmed.
Celebrations erupted in Damascus's squares, with thousands of people rejoicing at the regime's end, toppling statues of Hafez Al-Assad, the president's father, and waving revolutionary flags in black, white, and green. The Syrian army broadcasted a televised message announcing the reorganization of its troops in southern regions to "prevent incidents," although by then its authority was virtually dissolved.
Russia and Iran: Military Pillars of the Regime
Moscow and Tehran played a crucial role in the Syrian regime's survival for over a decade. Russia, a historical ally of Damascus, established a permanent military presence in Syria via the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase. Starting in 2015, its military intervention helped turn the war in Al-Assad's favor. Iran, through the Quds Force and the Lebanese group Hezbollah, provided direct military support, including boots on the ground and millions of dollars in financial aid. This military backing ensured the regime's endurance even during the conflict's most critical phases.
However, Russia and Iran's recent inaction suggests a potential strategic distancing, as they are entangled in their conflicts, like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Iran's support for forces opposing Israel in the Middle East. So far, neither government has issued official statements regarding Syria's fate, despite having significant strategic interests in the country. For Russia, the naval base in Tartus represents its Mediterranean fleet's presence.
International Reactions and the Middle East's Future
The fall of Damascus questions the future influence of Russia and Iran in the Middle East, especially after the United States' military withdrawal in 2018, which left a power vacuum that Moscow and Tehran eagerly filled. With Al-Assad's regime's collapse, both countries face a strategic setback that could shift the region's balance of power.
In Cuba, the impact is both diplomatic and symbolic. Havana loses one of its key international allies, a partner crucial to its foreign policy as the Cuban regime faced sanctions and international isolation. The lack of Syrian support on global platforms could further worsen Cuba's diplomatic standing.
Meanwhile, uncertainty about Bashar Al-Assad's whereabouts and the fate of forces loyal to his government keeps the region on edge. The new insurgent leaders face the monumental challenge of stabilizing a country ravaged by over a decade of war, while the world watches the future of one of the most complex and violent conflicts in recent history.
Key Questions About the Fall of the Assad Regime
What led to the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad's regime?
The regime fell due to a rapid offensive by armed opposition forces and mass defections within the Syrian armed forces, which undermined loyalty to the president.
How has the fall of the Assad regime affected Cuba?
Cuba loses a key diplomatic ally, which could further isolate the regime on the international stage and impact its foreign policy.
What role did Russia and Iran play in supporting the Assad regime?
Russia and Iran provided crucial military support, with Russia establishing a military presence in Syria and Iran offering financial and troop support through the Quds Force and Hezbollah.