What Impact Could Marco Rubio as Secretary of State Have on Cuba?

The appointment of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State under the new Donald Trump administration, pending Senate confirmation, has sparked discussions about potentially harsher U.S. policies towards Cuba. CNN's Cuba correspondent, Patrick Oppmann, has delved into this topic, speaking with experts and key figures to explore the potential consequences for the island.

A Strategic Stance Against Cuba

Rubio, the son of Cuban exiles, has long been a staunch critic of the Cuban regime, actively working to strengthen the trade embargo against the island. If confirmed as Secretary of State, Rubio would be in a unique position to impose stricter sanctions, increase funding for opposition groups, and further limit travel to Cuba. Peter Kornbluh, coauthor of Back Channel to Cuba, told Oppmann that Rubio has reached a pinnacle of power within the U.S. government that he has never held before, and he is likely to use this influence to solidify his reputation as a hardline extremist regarding the island. Kornbluh further cautioned that this situation "could truly be the final nail in what is already a very deep grave for Cuba."

Cuba: A Personal Cause for Rubio

Throughout his career, Rubio has made Cuba a central focus of his political agenda. His official Senate biography emphasizes his entry into politics was "largely due to his grandfather, who witnessed his homeland destroyed by communism." In a conversation with Oppmann, Manuel Roig-Franzia, author of The Rise of Marco Rubio, highlighted that the Cuban-American senator defines himself as the son of Cuban immigrants, and it would be "astonishing" if he did not seek to elevate Cuba's profile in U.S. foreign policy as Secretary of State. A diplomat, speaking anonymously, noted that during Trump's first term, Rubio played a significant role in shaping U.S. policy towards the island, stating, "Rubio led the charge on Cuba...you just need to keep him happy."

Potential Consequences of a More Aggressive Policy

As Secretary of State, the Florida senator could directly influence countries economically linked to the United States to reduce their support for Havana. Rubio might even leverage his position to pressure Cuba's key allies, such as Mexico, which has supported the island with oil shipments and medical contracts. In Miami, a stronghold of the Cuban exile community, Rubio is viewed as a champion of those who fled the socialist regime. His firm stance could further bolster his support among conservative Latino voters. However, some experts interviewed by the CNN journalist caution about the risks of such policies. Ricardo Herrero, director of the Cuba Study Group, warned that "to my knowledge, there are no plans for dealing with a failed state 90 miles off the U.S. coast, which is what Cuba seems to be approaching."

Cuba Adrift

In a burst of optimism, Miguel Díaz-Canel stated to state media following Trump's election, "We will move forward without fear, confident that through our own efforts and talents, we can succeed." However, on-the-ground realities, particularly frequent blackouts and shortages of basic goods, starkly contrast with these declarations. The Cuban economy continues to plunge deeper into crisis. Patrick Oppmann's analysis underscores that the policies Marco Rubio could implement as Secretary of State would have profound implications, not only for Cuba's already weakened economy but also for bilateral relations and regional stability. The outcome will depend on how the Cuban regime manages the pressure and whether the United States considers the potential ripple effects of a collapse on the island.