On December 20th, the Cuban government orchestrated a demonstration in Havana, led by Miguel Díaz-Canel and Raúl Castro. Official media and government supporters claimed that over 500,000 people attended. However, an objective analysis of available images and technical data contradicts these figures.
What Do the Images Reveal?
The march took place along Havana's Malecón, starting at the Anti-Imperialist Tribune. We used Google Maps to calculate the approximate area occupied by the demonstrators. This calculation was made before the march began, based on the measurements of the area from the Tribune to 23rd Street.
The images reveal that the participants occupied an area of approximately 12,230 square meters. By considering different density levels, it's possible to estimate the actual attendance. For a "normal" gathering, the density is estimated between 2 and 3 people per square meter, while a high density is around 4 people per square meter. Based on these estimates:
Low density (2.5 people per m²): 30,575 people. High density (4 people per m²): 48,920 people.
Even generously assuming a high density across the area (disregarding the large Cuban flag that occupied significant space), the real attendance didn't exceed 50,000 individuals. Realistically, around 30,000 people participated, clearly demonstrating that the government blatantly lies about the event's magnitude. This is a far cry from the 500,000 attendees claimed by the government, exaggerating the actual turnout by more than tenfold.
How Are the Numbers Inflated?
The regime once again showcases its dishonesty by manipulating figures to fabricate a false perception of widespread support. The inflated numbers were disseminated by state TV, regime-affiliated media, and on social media by government spokespersons and official accounts.
The images highlight empty spaces and a low participant density, directly contradicting the government’s exaggerated reports. While state media portrayed the march as a massive demonstration against the U.S. blockade, the truth is that the official figures are not just inaccurate but outright false. This attempt to deceive public opinion underestimates the intelligence of the Cuban people, who are well aware of the lack of genuine support for the government.
The Value of Objective Data
The reality is that the Cuban populace is weary of the same old slogans. The inflated figures do not fool those who live the country's reality: a deep economic crisis, widespread discontent, and massive emigration. These orchestrated and controlled demonstrations are a facade that fails to hide the disconnection between the government and the citizenry.
In today's world, where everything is increasingly transparent and tools are available to debunk falsehoods, it's easy to expose these manipulations by offering an analysis based on facts, not propaganda. The truth deserves to be heard.
Understanding the Cuban Government's Manipulation Tactics
How was the attendance of the Cuban march estimated?
The attendance was estimated using Google Maps to calculate the area occupied by participants and applying different density levels to determine the number of attendees.
Why are the government's reported figures considered false?
The government's figures are considered false because an objective analysis of images and technical data shows a significantly lower number of attendees than reported.
What is the impact of the government's manipulation of attendance figures?
Manipulating attendance figures creates a false perception of popular support, undermining the trust of the Cuban people and highlighting the regime's disconnection from the public.