Will Trump and His Ambassador Reshape Spain-Cuba Relations?

With Donald Trump's return to the White House and the appointment of Benjamín León Jr. as the U.S. ambassador to Spain, the dynamics between Washington, Madrid, and Havana are poised for transformation. León is not arriving to foster friendly relations or build bridges; his mission is starkly straightforward. It aims to dismantle the longstanding alliances that Spain has maintained with the Cuban regime, particularly during Pedro Sánchez's administration. The selection of an exiled Cuban, a symbol of rejection against Castro's rule, to lead this mission is no coincidence.

Trump's administration, featuring five Cuban-Americans in key positions, underscores a confrontational policy towards Cuba. His message is clear: allies of the Cuban regime, like Spain, will no longer be allowed to turn a blind eye.

The Historical Ties and Economic Interests

For decades, Spain has played an ambivalent role with Cuba. Historical ties are undeniable; the island was Spain's last major colony, and this influences a relationship filled with paternalism and nostalgia. In Spanish politics, Cuba is often seen not just as a commercial partner, but as a "younger sister" deserving special treatment. This perspective has allowed Madrid to maintain close ties with Havana, even during the darkest periods of Castro's regime.

Beyond history, anti-American sentiment has also been a significant factor, particularly among the Spanish left, who view Cuba as a symbol of resistance against U.S. power. This sentiment has been echoed by Pedro Sánchez, the PSOE, and their communist allies, forming a mantra justified by economic diplomacy that prioritizes dialogue over confrontation.

Economic Stakes at Play

However, beneath the rhetoric, economic interests are the real glue holding this relationship together. Spain is one of Cuba's largest trading partners and the leading European investor on the island. Hotel chains like Meliá, Iberostar, and NH dominate Cuban tourism, a sector controlled by the regime through GAESA, the military conglomerate. These companies generate millions of euros in revenue for both their shareholders and the Cuban government. Moreover, Spain exports essential goods to Cuba, from food to machinery, making it clear that Madrid has much to lose if relations with Havana become strained.

Washington's New Stance

With Trump back in power, significant changes are anticipated. Benjamín León is more than just an ambassador; he is a living message. His background as a survivor of Castro's regime emphasizes Washington's narrative that the Cuban government is responsible for decades of suffering and oppression. Those who support it, directly or indirectly, will face scrutiny. León's task is to press Spain to lessen its ties with Cuba and adopt a more critical stance.

This will not be an easy task. For Sánchez's government, severing ties with Havana would mean confronting the economic interests of Spanish businesses and abandoning a foreign policy that has favored dialogue. Nevertheless, with León's appointment, Washington's intentions are clear. The pressure will not be solely diplomatic; it will also be economic. Spanish companies in Cuba could face new sanctions or a tightening of regulations. Trump has previously shown his willingness to impose restrictions, such as the Helms-Burton Act's Title III, which directly impacted companies like Meliá. With a determined ambassador, tensions could escalate rapidly.

Spain's Dilemma

Spain stands at a crossroads. Continuing its policy of rapprochement with Cuba could jeopardize its relationship with the United States, while taking a more critical stance towards Havana would be a blow to its economic interests. Moreover, a sudden shift could be seen as capitulation to Trump, a politically costly move for Pedro Sánchez. However, with Benjamín León in Madrid, maintaining the balance will become increasingly difficult.

Time will reveal whether Sánchez and his government choose to uphold their relationship with the Cuban regime or succumb to the pressure from a more aggressive Trump and an ambassador intent on severing old ties. What's clear is that León is not here to negotiate. He's here to enforce a new reality. This time, Spain will have to choose a side.