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Forecast Predicts Severe Power Outages in Cuba

Thursday, January 30, 2025 by Emily Vargas

Forecast Predicts Severe Power Outages in Cuba
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Cuba continues to grapple with relentless power outages, and today's forecast from the Electric Union (UNE) offers little hope for improvement. Yesterday, the electrical service was disrupted from 5:01 a.m. until 1:34 a.m. of the following day. The most significant disruption recorded was 1,416 MW at 6:20 p.m., coinciding with the peak demand period, primarily impacting the central-eastern region of the island.

This morning at 4:45, power issues persisted due to high electricity transfers to that same region. By 7:00 a.m., the National Electric System (SEN) had an availability of 1,840 MW, while demand surged to 2,200 MW, resulting in a 581 MW shortfall, again heavily affecting the central-eastern areas. It is anticipated that around noon, the impact could reach 950 MW.

Regarding the status of the generating units, the Renté Power Plant's Unit 6 and Felton Power Plant's Unit 2 are currently out of service due to breakdowns. Maintenance is underway on the Santa Cruz Power Plant's Unit 2, as well as Units 3 and 4 of the Cienfuegos Power Plant, and Renté's Unit 5. Thermal generation limitations have reached 359 MW.

Additionally, due to fuel shortages, 52 distributed generation plants, accounting for 283 MW, are out of service, along with 126 MW at the Moa Fuel Plant, totaling 409 MW affected for this reason. During peak hours, there are plans to bring six engines online at the Moa Fuel Plant, which will contribute an additional 85 MW.

With this forecast, it is expected that during peak hours, the generation availability will be 1,925 MW, while the maximum demand will reach 3,220 MW, leading to a deficit of 1,295 MW. If these conditions persist, the anticipated impact for this period will be 1,365 MW.

Understanding the Cuban Power Crisis

What is causing the power outages in Cuba?

The power outages in Cuba are primarily due to a combination of high demand, breakdowns in key power plant units, and fuel shortages affecting distributed generation plants.

How is the central-eastern region of Cuba affected?

The central-eastern region of Cuba is experiencing significant disruptions due to high electricity transfers and demand, which have led to power shortages and outages in the area.

What measures are being taken to address the power shortage?

To mitigate the power shortage, efforts are being made to repair breakdowns, conduct maintenance on power plants, and incorporate additional engines at the Moa Fuel Plant.

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