Oil Expert Warns of Imminent Electrical Crisis in Cuba Amid Potential Massive Blackouts

This summer, Cuba's energy crisis might hit another critical juncture. Acclaimed oil expert, Jorge Piñón, who hails from Cuba and now serves as a non-resident fellow at the University of Texas's Energy Institute, predicts that the nation's power grid is teetering on the edge of a total collapse. This dire forecast follows last year's three major blackouts.

In a statement to América Tevé, Piñón highlighted the severe degradation of Cuba's thermoelectric plants, many of which rely on outdated technology and suffer from frequent breakdowns or urgently needed maintenance. He identified this deterioration as the main culprit behind the prolonged blackouts, some lasting over 20 hours, severely disrupting daily life.

"Cuba is currently facing an extremely challenging situation with a 50% loss in thermoelectric generation capacity. There's no fuel available for the Turkish power barges stationed in Havana Bay and Santiago de Cuba. Likewise, there's a lack of diesel for the generator groups," Piñón warned.

The expert further cautioned that, given the current scenario, a collapse of the national electrical system might be imminent. "I believe we are likely to witness a collapse in the national electrical system in the coming months, especially during summer, which is the peak demand season," he added.

A critical question posed by Piñón concerns the fate of Cuba's heavy crude oil, which theoretically should power the thermoelectric plants currently out of service. "What is the regime doing with Cuba's heavy crude oil, not being used in the thermoelectric plants now shut down for repairs or maintenance?" Piñón questioned.

He pointed out that these plants primarily consume local oil, thus not relying directly on crude imports from Russia, Mexico, or Venezuela. "Somewhere, there's an overabundance of Cuban oil. Where is this Cuban crude going if not being used as fuel in the thermoelectric plants?" Piñón reiterated.

Adding to the blackout problems is the fuel shortage. The Cuban government has recently limited the sale of premium gasoline exclusively to those who can pay in dollars at service centers designated for foreign currency transactions.

This policy has been interpreted by experts and analysts as furthering the dollarization of Cuba's economy, contradicting official regime messages that claim to uphold the Cuban peso's primacy. Most citizens, who earn salaries in Cuban pesos, find themselves increasingly excluded from basic services, thereby exacerbating social and economic inequality on the island.

Amid this crisis, the arrival of the Russian tanker Akademik Gubkin in Nipe Bay, Holguín, has drawn international attention. The vessel, carrying approximately 790,000 barrels of oil worth about $55 million, is on the U.S. Treasury Department's sanctions list.

According to Piñón, this transaction illustrates how international sanctions against Russia are impacting its exports. Ironically, they might temporarily benefit Cuba by ensuring a fuel supply.

Additionally, the state-owned company Cubametales, overseen by the military conglomerate GAESA, has procured a shipment of diesel from France valued at $32 million, set to arrive at Matanzas Bay on March 4.

Despite these recent fuel acquisitions, Piñón argues that these shipments are insufficient to meet the island's growing energy demands. In fact, a decrease in oil shipments from Mexico has been observed, which could worsen the situation further.

With the energy infrastructure on the brink of collapse, increasing economic restrictions, and an inadequate fuel supply, Cuba might face one of its most challenging summers in terms of energy in recent years, the expert concludes. The lack of investment in maintaining thermoelectric plants and restrictive economic policies seem to be driving the island toward another episode of massive blackouts and an unprecedented energy crisis.