Activity within Cuba's informal currency market remains dynamic. As of Thursday morning, the euro has seen a price increase for the third consecutive day. The European currency has now reached a value of 355 pesos, reflecting a two-unit rise compared to the previous day, as reported by the independent outlet elToque.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains steady at 350 CUP on March 20. The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) also shows no change, maintaining its value at 275 CUP, significantly lower than the other two currencies. Recent data on the buying and selling rates of currencies, which now include the Canadian dollar, indicate slight variations.
Exchange rates as of March 20, 2025, at 7:50 a.m. in Cuba are as follows:
- USD to CUP according to elToque: 350 CUP
- EUR to CUP according to elToque: 355 CUP
- MLC to CUP according to elToque: 275 CUP
The latest report from the Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi) suggests conditions are ripe for an increase in the availability of dollars and euros by the end of the month. "Due to trends in the informal currency market, during the early weeks of March, a slight excess demand for dollars and euros has emerged," the bulletin states. Predictions indicate a 2% to 5% appreciation of these foreign currencies against the Cuban peso for the month, while the MLC may see a 5% to 8% depreciation.
By March 31, the forecasted rates are approximately 350-360 CUP per 1 USD. For the euro, rates are expected to be between 352-362 CUP per 1 EUR, according to both central and maximum scenarios. Meanwhile, the MLC is anticipated to fall to rates of 270-260 CUP in central and minimum scenarios.
Pavel Vidal, the chief economist at OMFi, notes that "forecasts are subject to changes based on new economic policy announcements by the Cuban government, regulatory adjustments for the private sector, shifts in market expectations, and possible changes in the Trump Administration's sanctions policy."
Below are the currency equivalencies for U.S. dollars and euros to Cuban pesos (CUP) based on the exchange rates of March 20:
- U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
- 1 USD = 350 CUP
- 5 USD = 1,750 CUP
- 10 USD = 3,500 CUP
- 20 USD = 7,000 CUP
- 50 USD = 17,500 CUP
- 100 USD = 35,000 CUP
- Euros (EUR):
- 1 EUR = 355 CUP
- 5 EUR = 1,775 CUP
- 10 EUR = 3,550 CUP
- 20 EUR = 7,100 CUP
- 50 EUR = 17,750 CUP
- 100 EUR = 35,500 CUP
Cubans are highly attentive to the informal exchange rates for the dollar, euro, and MLC, as these rates significantly impact their actual purchasing power in an economy plagued by scarcity and inflation. The fluctuation in exchange rates prompts many residents on the island to closely monitor the informal market, seeking strategies to safeguard their purchasing power amid the devaluation of the national currency.
In a nation where salaries and pensions in Cuban pesos (CUP) fail to meet basic needs, access to foreign currencies has become essential for procuring vital goods in stores that sell exclusively in foreign denominations or for engaging in black market transactions where items unavailable in state-run commerce can be found.
FAQs on Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Why is the euro increasing in value in Cuba's informal market?
The euro is increasing in value due to a rising demand in the informal market, which has been experiencing a slight excess demand for both euros and dollars since early March.
What impact do currency fluctuations have on Cuban citizens?
Fluctuations in currency exchange rates directly affect the purchasing power of Cuban citizens, influencing their ability to buy essential goods in a challenging economic environment.
How are future currency rates predicted in the informal market?
Future rates are predicted based on current market trends, demand fluctuations, and potential policy changes by the Cuban government and international actors.