The Cuban informal currency market continues to be a hotbed of activity, with the euro experiencing a significant increase as of early Saturday morning. The European currency has surged to 356.5 CUP, marking an increment of 1.50 pesos compared to the previous day, according to daily reports from the independent outlet elToque. This platform tracks the fluctuations of major foreign currencies on the island.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remains stable at 350 CUP on March 22nd. The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) also shows no change, holding steady at 275 CUP, which is significantly lower than the other two currencies.
Current Exchange Rates and Market Trends
For this Saturday, both buying and selling rates of currencies exhibit an upward trend. As of the morning of March 22, 2025, the rates reported by elToque are as follows:
- USD to CUP: 350 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 356.5 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 275 CUP
Last week, a report from the Cuban Monetary and Financial Observatory (OMFi) forecasted potential increases in the prices of the dollar and euro in the informal market as the month progresses. "Due to the circumstances in the informal currency market, by early March, there was a slight excess demand for dollars and euros. Our predictive models indicate that international currencies may appreciate between 2% and 5% against the Cuban peso by the end of the month. However, the MLC could see a depreciation of 5% to 8%," the bulletin detailed.
Projected Exchange Rates by Month's End
According to the analysis, by March 31, the USD is expected to range between 350-360 CUP, while the euro could reach between 352-362 CUP, depending on central and maximum scenarios. For the MLC, rates might drop to 270-260 CUP in central and minimum scenarios.
Nevertheless, Pavel Vidal, the principal economist and researcher at OMFi, cautioned that forecasts could be affected by new economic policies from the Cuban government, regulatory changes for the private sector, shifts in market expectations, and any policy amendments from the Trump Administration regarding sanctions.
Currency Conversion and Economic Impact
Exchange rate equivalencies for available euro and US dollar denominations to Cuban pesos are as follows:
US Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
- 1 USD = 350 CUP
- 5 USD = 1,750 CUP
- 10 USD = 3,500 CUP
- 20 USD = 7,000 CUP
- 50 USD = 17,500 CUP
- 100 USD = 35,000 CUP
Euros (EUR):
- 1 EUR = 356.5 CUP
- 5 EUR = 1,780 CUP
- 10 EUR = 3,560 CUP
- 20 EUR = 7,120 CUP
- 50 EUR = 17,800 CUP
- 100 EUR = 35,600 CUP
- 200 EUR = 71,200 CUP
- 500 EUR = 178,000 CUP
Many Cubans closely monitor the informal exchange rates for dollars, euros, and MLC, as these determine their actual purchasing power in an economy plagued by scarcity and inflation. In a nation where wages and pensions in Cuban pesos (CUP) are insufficient to meet basic needs, access to foreign currencies is crucial for obtaining essential goods available only in stores that trade in foreign denominations, or for transactions in the black market, where state-run outlets fail to provide necessary items.
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Why is the informal currency market important in Cuba?
The informal currency market is crucial in Cuba because it determines the real purchasing power of citizens in an economy characterized by scarcity and inflation, where foreign currency is needed to buy essential goods.
What factors influence the exchange rate fluctuations in Cuba?
Exchange rate fluctuations in Cuba are influenced by factors such as government economic policies, regulatory changes, market expectations, and international sanctions, particularly those from the United States.