Juan Antonio Blanco, the head of the think tank Cuba XXI, suggests there is a significant chance that the United States might consider a precise military intervention in Cuba. This potential action could occur if the Díaz-Canel regime enacts a repressive measure against the Cuban populace, especially given the imbalance between state-owned weaponry and the citizens. In an interview with CiberCuba, Blanco speculated that crime rates on the island are likely to increase in 2025. He drew parallels to the 2017 scenario in Syria, where President Trump's administration responded to Bashar Al-Assad's chemical attacks on civilians with a targeted strike on a strategic airbase, launching 59 Tomahawk missiles.
Blanco commented, "Many government officials believe this could happen," when asked by CiberCuba about the real possibility of Trump ordering military action in Cuba. He emphasized, "The system has collapsed in Cuba. We must wait to see if Cuban society will erupt. How will the repressive forces react? If unrest occurs, what response might we see that hasn't been seen before? Will people resort not only to protests but also to violent means against the repressive forces? During Trump's tenure, would the administration respond with military action, similar to Syria?"
In Blanco's view, Cuba meets nearly all the criteria of a failed state, with the exception of the regime's territorial control. Given the frequent massive blackouts and the Cuban communists' inability to provide essential public services, such as healthcare, education, and social care, it seems inevitable that the population may reach a breaking point. Should this occur, he insists, it cannot be ruled out that under Trump's leadership, the U.S. might respond differently this time.
Potential U.S. Military Actions in Cuba: Key Questions Answered
Why might the United States consider a military intervention in Cuba?
A U.S. military intervention in Cuba might be considered if the Cuban regime reacts with disproportionate force against its citizens, creating a scenario similar to past conflicts where the U.S. has intervened.
How does the situation in Cuba compare to Syria in 2017?
The comparison draws on the possibility of a severe governmental crackdown on civilians, akin to Assad's chemical attacks in Syria, which prompted the U.S. to conduct military strikes.
What does Juan Antonio Blanco mean by calling Cuba a 'failed state'?
Blanco refers to Cuba's inability to provide basic public services and maintain societal order, except for the regime's control over the territory, which is a typical characteristic of a failed state.